India wary as China spreads Nepal reach

Calcutta Telegraph/ Tuesday, December 22, 2009

When Nepal army chief Chhatraman Singh Gurung was being feted with the honorary rank of general in the Indian Army here last week, his deputy was quietly signing a deal with a visiting Chinese military delegation in Kathmandu.

To analysts in Kathmandu, the two developments will inevitably evoke a familiar description of Nepal -- that of “a yam stuck between two boulders”. The boulders, of course, are India and China.

But in New Delhi, the military establishment is concerned that India’s army and government are risking losing a space they have traditionally held on to.

General Torun Jung Bahadur Singh, who was acting as army chief in Kathmandu in the absence of Gurung, signed a deal with Major General Jia Jialing, deputy director in the foreign relations cell of the Chinese Peoples’ Liberation Army. The Chinese pledged 20.8 million yuan (Rs 14.2 crore approximately) as aid for “non lethal” military equipment.

Nepal’s ammunition-starved army is looking for newer and surer sources of supply since India began turning off the tap of military aid in 2001 and then almost brought it to a halt in 2005.

To the defence establishment in New Delhi, the signs are unmistakable: China is stepping-in in Nepal just as it had in Sri Lanka and before that in Myanmar because India has been chary of continuing with military aid to neighbours beset by domestic troubles.

Sri Lanka has all but moved on after brutally crushing the three-decade LTTE insurgency with military might in May this year. Sri Lanka’s army was using Chinese weaponry and ammunition apart from the outdated Indian equipment it had in its arsenal.

In Myanmar, where India was shy of courting the military junta because of Delhi’s political support to the democracy movement of Aung San Suu Kyi and the fear of international criticism, it has stepped up visits and exchanges. Three years ago, India even supplied field guns and a maritime surveillance aircraft to Myanmar.

But by then the Chinese were everywhere, investing in Myanmar’s ports, highways and industries and helping prop up its army militarily.

For the military establishment in India, the waning of goodwill in Sri Lanka and Myanmar is a loss that it is now trying to make up. In Nepal, senior Indian Army officers say, there cannot be a waiting period.

Nepal is vastly different for India from the island nation or from Myanmar. With neither of those countries does India have an open border. The unique India-Nepal relationship grants reciprocal citizenship rights (minus voting rights) to the residents of each country. Nepalese Gorkhas serve in the Indian Army in large numbers.

The move to fete General Gurung and resume arms supplies to Nepal’s army, sources argue, should be seen in this context — and not merely from the point of view of touching off sensitivities among the Himalayan nation’s Maoists.

One officer said that when Prachanda headed the government before being forced to quit over the reinstatement of the former Nepal army chief, General Rukmangad Katawal, there were moves by Kathmandu to get closer to China.

Prachanda’s defence minister and former chief of the Nepal Maoists’ militia, Ram Bahadur Thapa (Badal), visited Beijing in September 2008. The Chinese army’s deputy chief, Lt Gen Ma Ziaotian, who also oversees India-China military relations and was in charge of their two joint drills, met Prachanda in December last year.

Now, Prachanda’s successor and Nepal’s current Prime Minister, Madhav Nepal, is scheduled to visit China on December 26.

The Chinese have expressed concern over the Tibetan protests in Nepal at a time Kathmandu is reported to have sought Indian military help to build an airstrip for its army’s air wing in Surkhet near Nepal’s border with Tibet. The Nepal Maoists have been quick to allege that India intends to use such an airstrip as a base for operations against China in the event of hostilities.

After being given his honorary rank and hosting General Deepak Kapoor at a lavish reception in the Nepalese embassy in Delhi last week, General Gurung is understood to have invited the Indian Army chief to Kathmandu.

Traditionally, a new Indian Army chief’s first visit has been to Nepal where he, too, is given the honorary rank. Kapoor’s predecessor, General J.J. Singh, now governor of Arunachal Pradesh, was twice advised against visiting Nepal for the ceremony. Kapoor has visited many countries and is now in the last leg of his tenure.

Whether Kapoor will accept the invitation and visit Kathmandu before he retires early next year will be a demonstration of the Indian government’s diplomatic intent in the face of the resurgent Maoists in Nepal.

The resumption of arms supplies — armoured personnel carriers, Insas rifles, ammunition and possibly even tanks — to Nepal’s army and a visit by Kapoor will demonstrate not only New Delhi’s resolve in encouraging an “apolitical and professional” military in Nepal but also its determination to maintain its strategic and political space in the Himalayan country that China is nibbling into.

India Loosing Grounds in Nepal

N. P. Upadhyaya /  The Telegraph Nepal

Kathmandu: The stage is set for a fierce confrontation should the two sides continue to remain unbending over their preferred and declared posture.

The Maoists very efficiently and, let’s admit the fact, effectively exhibited their numerical strength in the Kathmandu streets during their three day closure which was definitely associated with the muscle prowess as well.

The government remained all along a mere onlooker during this Maoist sponsored Bundh even when the Kathmandu and the entire country denizens have had to endure the troubles and difficulties that was caused by the fresh closure.

In many more ways than one, the Nepal Maoists bagged success in sending signals here and there that they were still very alive and kicking though out from the power structure at the moment.

In fact the Maoists prevailed over the Nepal government and in the process even challenged the validity and the legal authority of the Constituent Assembly by undertaking a job that remained the sole duty and preserve of the CA body.

The declaration of some fourteen different autonomous States in a unilateral manner by the Maoists does in many more ways than one cap the legal authority of the CA body which is as good as defunct now speaking on legal terms. The raison d’être of the CA body has come to an end.

With the success of the fresh Nepal closure, the Maoists leaders and the cadres alike have reasons to be elated for the party of the ex-rebels accomplished tasks that are usually done by the radical communists prior to the Capture of the State.

Virtually, the Maoists have captured the State though some hitches still remain as regards the demarcation of the newly formed States which time permitting they will “impose” upon the silent and frightened population whenever they feel it do so.

The so called liberals and the pseudo-democrats could not even come to the streets in protest of the Maoists fresh move if they really disliked the declaration of the autonomous bodies by the Maoists. The shying away of the democrats must have encouraged the Maoists who in all likelihood do some more puzzling declarations in the days ahead. They may even declare government from the streets.

Dr. Babu Ram Bhattarai, one of the Maoists’ vice chairmen is on record to have already stated that the Maoists plan to declare a “people’s constitution” right from the streets. When the Maoists say it, they mean it and have the guts to do what they announce.

The democrats are in a deep slumber. They will have to pay heavy price some time later for their inefficiency in protesting the Maoist’s unilateral moves.

Now let’s concentrate on analyzing the current politics.

What has been more than clear is that none of the parties having their representation in the CA body wish to draft the new constitution.

Maoists do not want the constitution drafted by the CA because they want it to be declared by themselves right from the streets which suited the people. Their goal is the formation of what they call “People’s Republic”. The Maoists are inching towards their goal though the speed is bit slower.

The Nepali Congress, almost a non-political entity now, too has apparently concluded that with the remaining 157 days left for the constitution draft, it could not be drafted on the stipulated date and time and thus prefers to encourage the President to take over the charge of the nation under one pretext or the other.

The NC idea is to impose Presidential rule in the country and through the effective use of the Nepal Army crush the former rebels.

The former rebels are not that fools not to have understood this NC ploy.

To recall, recently a NC delegation went to see the President and “advised” him to take over the charge of the nation. The President is learnt to have listened to his former party friends but did not provide words.

Similarly, the UML too by now has clearly understood that given the Maoists terrifying activities in progress, the draft of the new constitution was next to impossible and thus remains in a fix. The UML is a party that is neither democratic nor a communist one. It is divided which could be seen clearly if one carefully listened to various speeches being made by different leaders at one stretch.

But then yet, majority of the UML leaders would want the constitution drafted on time by the CA body.

Bam Dev Gautam, one of the nearest and dearest allies of the Maoists candidly claims in his lectures that sans the participation of the Maoists, neither the constitution be drafted nor the peace process could see a logical end.

However, Mr. Gautam is on record to have warned his own party leaders that if there is the delay even by a single minute in the draft of the new constitution, the entire constitutional premises existing at the moment will crumble like house of cards and the now sidelined King will automatically bounce back to power.

He sees the threat of the King staging a comeback. But with whose assistance? The Nepal Army or the Indian establishment? Gautam hints the NA will come to the scene in elevating the ranks of the now sidelined King. But will the people appreciate this NA move?

More or less in a similar manner, the Maoist ideologue Dr. Bhattarai, December 21, 2009, beamingly warned that after May 28, 2010-the deadline for the new constitution to get drafted-the entire constitutional organs of the State will go to the dogs to the extent that even the institution of the Nepal Presidency will cease to exist.

He was in some manner sending signals to his detractors who have been presumably conspiring to bring in the President to the country’s politics if the constitution could not be drafted on time.

“If the CA body ceases to exist then automatically the office of the Nepal President too will have the same fate”, is what Dr. Bhattarai told his cadres in Baneshwar, December 21, 2009.

Not even five months are left for the draft of the constitution and the situation is that the three major parties that sidelined the Royal Institution, early 2006, are in a mood to stage a fight-to-finish drama.

Across the border, the Indian establishment is feeling the brunt.

The political instability in Nepal will definitely have its profound impact on the Indian security situation. More so the state declaration by the Maoists has already encouraged some Indian States to go in for a similar demand. The process of such a demand in India is gaining momentum.

Indian regime now feels that she was ditched by the ones whom she “carefully nurtured” in NOIDA, Delhi for more than eight years.

Needless to say, India is the prime loser in today’s Nepalese politics as it stands.

India’s lopsided policy towards Nepal is what has become now a real burden for the Indian regime itself.

The Nepal Maoists-more or less the Indian brainchild- have begun spitting venom against India and more so they have gone to the pockets of India’s “number one enemy”-China, Nepal’s “quiet” Northern neighbor.

This is by default, analysts presume.

The Chinese penetration, by the way, has become so high in Nepal in the recent days and months that every week, if not each day, one high level Chinese delegation is in town and pouring in money like anything in Nepal and assuring this country of several project-construction with their total and unconditional assistance.

China and India are competing with each other on how to keep Nepal in their fold.

The speed with which the two neighboring giants have shown their keen interest in Nepal is unprecedented. Never thought even in dreams. The reality is that China is here now for all time to come much to the chagrin of the “traditional neighbor” in the South.

The two way competition has just begun. If Nepal could balance these two competing neighbors then well within a decade or so the country’s facelift is sure. However, that demands diplomatic acumen which is absent in Nepali leaders.

India in the meantime committed a political blunder of Himalayan dimension. Dr. Man Mohan Singh is on record to have assured Nepal PM stating that “When ever you have any problem in dealing with the Maoists in your country, talk to me instantly over telephone and I will try to fix them”.

This do in many more ways than one adds strength to the Maoists’ regular assertion that Madhav Nepal’s government is the brainchild of the Indian establishment”.

Dr. Singh, had he been an astute diplomat, must not have ventilated his caring feelings towards Mr. Nepal in Copenhagen in such a flimsy and irritating manner.

Look how fool is our own Prime Minister. He beamingly declared that “I have been assured by the Indian PM that he will look after my issues and problems in Kathmandu”.

Mr. Nepal and Dr. Singh now stand exposed to the hilt.

That Mr. Nepal is an India man has come to the fore and under this very premise, the Maoists are sure to create more havoc and panic in this country in the days ahead should their demands are not met with.

Nepali politics this way has slipped from the hands of the Indian regime. Bear with it poor India!

Yet some cards are under the Indian sleeves whose effective and timely use could allow India to regain its lost ground in Nepal.

The sidelined King is now in Delhi who, as reports have it, already met with Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, December 21, 2009, afternoon.

The former King is likely to meet Dr. Singh any time from now, Nepali media reports claim.

For reasons unknown, the news of the meet has been ignored in Nepal and in India as well.

But the question is now whether the former King could be of any support to the beleaguered Indian establishment given the Himalayan Chinese penetration that is already in Nepal? Can India count on him still? Is there any way out that the Indian regime can utilize the political acumen of the now sidelined King? Who knows!

Analysts opine that the impending Indian moves will have to be watched carefully.

2009-12-22

A red-carpet welcome for Nepal

By Dhruba Adhikary

KATHMANDU - In what seems to be a balancing act, Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal embarks on a visit to China this week. His trip follows on a visit to India in August, three months after he assumed office.

Premier Nepal's Chinese hosts are expected to listen to him patiently as he is the head of the government of a country which shares over 1,400 kilometers of mountainous border with Tibet. His first stop en route to Beijing will be Tibet's capital, Lhasa, where Nepal maintains a consulate. The Chinese authorities have not allowed any other country such a diplomatic presence in the region.

The Nepali visitor is to be taken to Xian and Shanghai, besides Beijing, said an official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, describing the trip as a goodwill visit. It is taking place after a couple of postponements, mainly because of preoccupations on the Chinese side.

In the course of substantive talks in Beijing between Premier Nepal and his counterpart, Wen Jiabao, an agreement of economic cooperation is to be signed that will offer sizeable development assistance to Nepal. An ongoing Chinese-aided project in Nepal is the construction of a mountainous road for a second vehicular link with Tibet, from Rasuwaa pass, which will augment border trade. The road is likely to be ready by next October.

China helped Nepal open its first road link for Kathmandu in the early 1960s, when the then-king, Mahendra, had to assure Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru that communism would not be allowed to travel by jeep.

The second road link might eventually be useful for Nepal to diversify its external trade, which is currently overwhelmed by imports from India.

That China's policy towards Nepal has remained "realistic" over decades is admitted by Nepali diplomats and independent analysts alike. The homework they do before embarking on any new project always remains strikingly thorough, and the job is usually completed before the agreed timetable. And the Chinese, unlike the Indians, do not meddle in Nepal's domestic politics.

Their consistent policy appears to be to deal with those Nepali leaders who reach the seat of authority through a process internally agreed upon. Until early 2006, Beijing held talks and negotiations with the country's kings. The Chinese leadership turned to talking with new leaders once the people of Nepal opted for a political change, in April that year.

That China quickly adjusts to an emerging scenario was witnessed when its newly appointed ambassador became the first foreign envoy in Nepal to present his credentials to the then-prime minister, Girija Prasad Koirala. The monarchy had not been formally abolished at that time, and although playing dysfunctional role, Gyanendra was still living in the king's palace.

Some Chinese diplomats in Kathmandu used to admit, in private conversations, that the monarchy remained a factor of stability for Nepal, but they insisted that China would respect the Nepali people's decision for a political change. They did not bother whether the changes occurred in a genuine, spontaneous manner.

China is now welcoming Premier Nepal as his country's interim prime minister. While he has support from 22 of the 25 political parties that have representation in the 601-strong Constituent Assembly, Premier Nepal's hosts in Beijing are aware that his tenure may not go beyond next May and that he is perceived as a "puppet" by the Nepali Maoists who make up the largest opposition in the assembly. Nor is it hidden from public view that Premier Nepal, who lost an election in April 2008, was "elected" prime minister under extraordinary circumstances.

Contemporary media reports depict him as probably the weakest prime minister since the advent of democracy in 1991. From a law-and-order standpoint, Nepal's situation is precarious. Maoist-led street agitation is pushing the country to the brink. It appears to be sitting on the top of a volcano, especially in the context of a premature Maoist announcement to declare ethnicity-based "autonomous republics".

Premier Nepal has done precious little to stop this divisive step. Instead, he went ahead with his travel plans, which included leading an unusually large delegation to the Copenhagen climate change jamboree last week. In a worsening situation, he is now heading for China.

"Who is in charge in Nepal?" asked S Chandrasekharan, an Indian analyst, in an article for the South Asia Analysis Group last week. This is a pithy comment, coming as it does from India in the wake of unrefuted media reports that New Delhi continues to extend its support to Premier Nepal, and will do so at least until his country gets the promised new constitution.

Under these circumstances, the Chinese leaders are unlikely to take any initiatives for negotiations that would have long-term effects on bilateral relations. If past experience is taken into account, the Chinese are likely to hear Premier Nepal attentively and reiterate their concern about the activities of "Free Tibet" activists in Kathmandu and elsewhere in Nepal. Such activities are presumed to have arisen in recent months, particularly by those who take advantage of the long, porous and unregulated border with India. India regards the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, as its honored guest.

While Kathmandu-based Chinese diplomats insist that China does not compete with India in Nepal, ground realities do not corroborate such an assertion. It is altogether a different point that not all of the Chinese perceptions and concomitant measures are direct or visible. Some are latent as well as indirect. Among the efforts openly made include its request to the government of Nepal to set up police checkpoints in its northern border passes, even if some of these points are remote and more or less inaccessible.

China has lately become very sensitive to New Delhi's bid to enhance its security interests in Nepal, so much so that a local newspaper report attracted the attention of the People's Daily inasmuch as it alluded to Nepal's purported endorsement of a proposal to construct an airstrip in the western town of Surkhet for the use of the Indian Air Force. Surkhet is close to the tri-junction of Kaalaapaani, where India, China and Nepal meet.

In view of China's longstanding border dispute with India, which led to a brief conflict in 1962, and India's fear that China would attack its rival by 2012, hostilities between them are not mere imagination.

Some of the high-ranking Chinese officials visiting Nepal in recent months have publicly told Kathmandu that China remained prepared to assist Nepal in protecting its sovereignty and independence. This is often interpreted as a veiled warning to India, whose interference in Nepal has been on the rise since the political changes of 2006. The Chinese are also aware of the fact that India has encroached on Nepal's territory at more than 50 border points.

"The Indian offensives, both diplomatic and non-diplomatic, are sure to exacerbate tensions and thereby encourage Chinese counter-measures," Devraj Dahal, a professor of political science, told Asia Times Online.

M K Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat, asked a pertinent question in an article published in The Hindu newspaper recently: Why are India's neighbors getting so "manifestly attracted to fostering close ties with China?"

While Nepalis hope that Premier Nepal succeeds in securing firm Chinese commitments to help Nepal as a country, there are apprehensions that he may be tempted to utilize the opportunity to obtain goodwill for his own continuation in the post he has occupied since May.
 

Courtesy: Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

शान्ति प्रक्रिया कि तुष्टीकरण प्रक्रिया ?

दीपक गजुरेल

कैलालीको डुँडेझाडी जंगल कब्जा प्रकारण पछि प्रमुख राजनीतिक शक्तिहरु अझ उग्र भाषा बोल्न थालेका छन्‍ । सरकारमा रहेका दलहरु मात्र होइन, स्वयम्‍ सरकारले नै औपचारिक रुपमा माओवादी माथि 'शान्ति प्रक्रिया विपरित काम गरेको' आरोप लगाएको छ ।

भिडन्त निम्त्याएको आक्षेप सरकार माथि लगाउने माओवादी नेता डरलाग्दो हिँसाको धम्की दिइराखेका छन्‍ । मैले चाहेको जस्तो नहुने हो भने 'दश लाख जनताको वलिदान,' 'रगतको खोलोमा पौडी' जस्ता हुँकार माओवादी अध्यक्षवाट भर्खरै आयो ।

'सहमति गर्ने समझदारी' का समाचार दैनिक जसो आइराखेका छन्‍ । वर्तमान जटिलताको निकास निकाल्न 'वार्ता,' 'वैठक,' 'छलफल' जारी राखिएको छ । अहिले सम्म उपलब्धिशून्य यी 'प्रयाश' संगै मुठभेड, भिडन्त, रक्तपात, गृहयुद्ध जस्ता आक्रामक शैली सरकार र विपक्षी दुबै पक्षले देखाइराखेका छन्‍ ।

शान्ति प्रक्रिया र असहमति :

माओवादीले सरकार विरुद्ध तेश्रो चरणको आन्दोलन जारी राखेको छ । आन्दोलनको यो चरणमा, अरु कुराका अतिरिक्त, उसले आफ्नो हिसाबले 'स्वायत्त गणराज्य' हरुको घोष्णा गरिराखेको छ । माओवादीको यो कदमलाई संसदवादीहरुले विरोध गरेका छन्‍ । संविधानसभा बाहिर एउटा मात्र पक्षले गणराज्य घोषणा गर्नु वृहत्त शान्ति सम्झौता र अन्तरिम संविधान विरोधी कदम हो भनेर सरकारले भनिराखेको छ । तर माओवादी कसैको 'आग्रह' नसुनेर झन्‍ झन्‍ दवाव बढाउँदैछ ।

गणराज्य घोषणा गर्ने काम शान्ति सम्झौता र अन्तरिम संविधान विरोधी हो भनेर प्रधानमंत्रीले समेत भनेका छन्‍ । संविधान विपरित काम गर्ने संविधानसभाको सबै भन्दा ठूलो शक्ति प्रति सरकारले के–कस्तो व्यवहार गर्ने हो भन्ने प्रष्ट भैसकेको छैन ।

संविधान उलंघन गर्नु, संविधानसभाको अधिकार क्षेत्रमा दखल दिनु जस्ता काम एउटा पक्ष हो । तर यहाँ वृहत्त शान्ति सम्झौता उलंघनको प्रश्न उठेको छ । गणराज्य घोषणा गर्ने लगायतका काम माओवादीले जारी राखेर समानान्तर सरकार खडा गरिरहेको अवस्थामा 'यसो गर्नु राम्रो होइन' जस्ता वक्तव्य मात्र आएका छन्‍, प्रधानमंत्री लगायत जिम्मेवार सरकारी पदाधिकारीहरुवाट ।

वृहत्त शान्ति सम्झौतामा सरकारले हस्ताक्षर गरेको हो, माओवादीसंग । हस्ताक्षरकारी दुई पक्ष मध्ये कुनै पक्षले उक्त सम्झौता उलंघन गरेको खण्डमा के हुने ? 'सम्झौता उलंघन भयो' भनेर मात्र सरकारको दायित्व पूरा हुन्छ ? औपचारिक रुपमा वृहत्त शान्ति सम्झौता भंग भएको छैन आजसम्म । तर त्यसको पालना पनि गरिएको छैन, आरम्भ देखि नै हस्ताक्षरकारी दुबै पक्षवाट । 'सरकार कडा रुपमा प्रस्तुत हुने' सन्देश प्रवाह गरिएको भए पनि दवाव वढाउने र 'सहमति खोज्ने' नाटक अझ केही दिन चल्ने संकेत देखिएको छ ।

तुष्टीकरण प्रक्रिया:

मुलुक तीन वर्षदेखि 'शान्ति प्रक्रिया' मा छ । औपचारिक रुपमा शान्ति प्रक्रिया भनिए पनि यथार्थमा यो तुष्टीकरण प्रक्रियामा परिणत भएको छ । वृहत्त शान्ति सम्झौतामा सरकार र माओवादीले हस्ताक्षर गरेकै दिनदेखि त्यसबेला सात दल भनिने अहिलेका संसदवादी दलहरुले एउटै काम गरेका छन्‍, माओवादीले जे भन्छ र माग्छ त्यो गर्ने तथा पुर्‍याइदिने ।

आफ्ना लडाकू र बन्दूक आफैँसंग राखेर संविधानसभाको चुनावमा जान चाहेको माओवादीको इच्छा अनुरुप नै संसदवादी दलहरु चले । संविधानसभाको वनावट, सदस्य संख्या, चुनाव प्रणाली जस्ता विषयमा माओवादीले जे र जसरी भन्यो त्यही गरियो । सम्पति कब्जा, हिँसा, अपहरण, हत्या, धम्की जारी राखेरै, निजी सेना र बन्दूक बोकेरै सरकारको नेतृत्व गर्न माओवादीकालागि मार्ग प्रशस्त गरियो । यी केही उदाहरण मात्र हुन्‍ विगत्‍मा अपनाइएको तुष्टीकरण नीतिको ।

सरकार, माओवादी र अन्य पक्ष/समूहहरुबीच भएका सहमति, सम्झौता, समझदारीको पालना गर्नु आवश्यक ठानिएन । जसको शक्ति उसको भक्तिको आधारमा राजनीतिक मात्र होइन कानूनी प्रक्रिया समेत सञ्चालन गरियो, गरिँदैछ ।

'मैले चाहेको जस्तो हुनुपर्छ, होइन भने ...' जस्ता धम्कीका आधारमा 'शान्ति प्रक्रिया बिथोलिन्छ' भन्दै काम गर्दै हिँडेर मुलुकलाई यहाँसम्म ल्याइपुर्‍याएका हुन्‍, संसदवादी दलहरुले । नेपालवाट राजतन्त्र उन्मूलन गरी गणतन्त्र स्थापना गर्ने लक्ष्य माओवादीको हो । मुलुकमा गणतन्त्र ल्याइसक्दा अझै पनि प्रमुख मध्येको एउटा संसदवादी दलले विधानत: आधिकारिक रुपमा गणतन्त्र अङ्गिकार गरिसकेको छैन ।

माओवादी रिसाउला, शान्ति प्रक्रिया बिथोलिएला, फेरि हत्या, हिँसा र आतङ्क शुरु होला भन्ने त्रासकै भरमा संसदवादी दलहरुले जायज–नाजायज 'माग' पूरा गर्दै आएका हुन्‍ । अहिले देखिएको 'असहमति' माओवादीलाई सन्तुष्ट पार्ने र उसलाई नचिढाउने यही प्रवृत्तिको निरन्तरता मात्र हो ।

संविधानसभामा झण्डै बहुमतमा रहेको माओवादी दवाव बढाउँदै, आफ्नो स्वार्थ तथा रणनीति अनुसार काम गर्न सफल भएको हो अहिलेसम्म । र संसदवादी दलहरु यो सबै सहन, हेर्न र गर्न वाध्य भएका हुन्‍ ।

अवको स्थिति अलि जटिल बन्दैगएको छ । त्यसैले संसदवादी दलहरु माओवादी प्रति वढी आक्रामक देखिन खोजेका हुन्‍ । माओवादीले भने जस्तो गर्न सक्ने अवस्थामा संसदवादी दलहरु अव छैनन्‍ । किनभने अव पनि विगत्‍कै जसरी तुष्टीकरणको नीति अपनाउनु भनेको संसदवादीहरुको अस्तित्व नै खतरामा पर्नु हो ।

'शान्ति प्रक्रिया' को नाममा आफैँले अपनाएको तुष्टीकरणको नीतिले एउटा निश्चित बिन्दूमा पुगेपछि बुमर्‍याङमा पार्नु स्वभाविक हो । र अव संसदवादी दलहरुसंग दुईवटा मात्र विकल्प बाँकी छन्‍ । पहिलो, विगत्‍को जस्तै माओवादीलाई चित्त बुझाउँदै गएर अन्तत: आफ्नै सर्वनाश हेर्ने । 'संसदवादीहरुलाई हामी अव राजालाई जस्तै सखाप पारिदिन्छौँ' भनेर 'पूर्व विद्रोही' नेताहरु त्यसै भनिराखेका छैनन्‍ ।

संसदवादीहरुका लागि दोश्रो विकल्प हो, माओवादी वृहत्त शान्ति सम्झौता विपरित गयो भनेर हालै प्रधानमंत्रीले भने जस्तै सरकारका तर्फवाट सो शान्ति सम्झौता भंग भएको घोषणा गर्ने र त्यसको परिणामका लागि तयार रहने । यी दुई बाहेक तेश्रो वाटो कम्तिमा यसबेला देखिएको छैन । दिल्लीले गराइदिएको १२ बुँदे सम्झौता अनुसार 'मिलेर जाने' संभावना राजतन्त्र फालेपछि नै समाप्त भैसकेको हो ।

यी मध्ये कुनै पनि विकल्प अपनाउन सजिलो छैन । पहिलो वाटोले आफ्नै अस्तित्व समाप्त पार्ने हुनाले संसदवादी दल र नेताहरु त्यो विकल्प अनुसार हिँड्‍न आँट गर्ने अवस्थामा छैनन्‍ । 'शान्ति सम्झौता' सरकारका तर्फवाट भंग गरेर मुलुकमा पुन: हत्या, हिँसा आरम्भ गराउन सक्ने स्थितिमा पनि हाम्रा 'लोकतन्त्रवादी,' नव–गणतन्त्रवादी दल र यिनका नेताहरु छैनन्‍ । किनभने यो वाटोले मुलुकका साथै यी दल र यिनका नेताहरुलाई समेत ध्वस्त पारिदिनेछ । र राष्ट्र जेसुकै होस्‍ तर आफ्नो निहित स्वार्थ पूरा होस्‍ भन्ने नियतका साथ काम गर्नेहरुले त्यस्तो अवस्था रुचाउने छैनन्‍ ।

स्वभाविक परिणति :

संसदवादी दलहरु भन्दा कम अप्ठ्‍यारोमा माओवादी छैन । अहिलेसम्म आफूले चाहेको सजिलो वा गाह्रो गरी प्राप्त गर्दै आएको माओवादीले थप पाउन सक्ने ठाउँ अव थोरै मात्र बाँकी छ । यही प्रणाली अन्तर्गत्‍ सरकारमा जाने बाहेक देशलाई 'जनगणतन्त्र' मा सोझै लानसक्ने हैसियतमा माओवादी छैन । मुलुकको आन्तरिक भन्दा पनि वाह्य कारणले गर्दा माओवादीका सीमाहरु साँघुरो बन्दै गएका हुन्‍ ।

आफ्ना अहिलेसम्मका सबै 'अडान' त्यागेर संसदवादीहरुले चाहेको वाटोमा हिँडेको खण्डमा माओवादी समाप्त हुनेछ भन्ने कुरामा शंका गर्नुपर्ने कुनै कारण छैन । त्यसैले आफ्ना कारणले मुलुकमा पुन: हिँसा र आतङ्क शुरु भएको नदेखिने वाटोको खोजी तथा पर्खाइमा छ माओवादी अहिले ।

राजनीतिक खेलाडीहरुले जुन वाटो जसरी अवलम्बन गरे पनि कुनै बेला 'मिलेर नयाँ नेपाल बनाउने' बाचा गर्नेहरु यसबेला आमने–सामने सिंगौरी खेल्ने स्थितिमा आइपुग्नु अनपेक्षित चाहिँ थिएन ।

दिल्लीको निर्देशनमा १२ बुँदे सम्झौतामा हस्ताक्षर गरिँदा नै दूरदृष्टि राख्नेले उसैबेला भनेका थिए, 'अव नेपालमा माओवादी हावी हुनेछ र संसदवादी दलहरु दयनीय अवस्थामा पुग्नेछन्‍ ।'

गहिरो अध्ययन, रणनीतिक विश्लेषण र दूरदृष्टि राख्नेले त्यसबेला गरेको प्रक्षेपण हाम्रा राजनीतिक दल तथा नेताहरुको सन्दर्भमा ठ्‍याक्कै मिलेको छ । र त्यसैबेला देखाइएको सुरक्षा सम्बन्धी भावी दिनको चित्र पनि देखिनथालेको छ, यसबेला । सर्वसाधारणले समेत बुझ्‍ने गरी देखिन अलि समय कुर्नुपर्ला ।

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