Dipendra Pant
The ongoing peace process in Nepal Nepal
In what follows, there is an examination of inter-party relations and power dynamics since 1996 to present date and beyond. Unprecedented political upheaval has occurred during this time frame. If we look into the major political turning points in the country since the commencement of the armed insurgency to date, these can be construed as meaning more for broader political strategies than for the problems and grievances of the citizenry who have been awaiting a resolution.
The declaration of armed insurgency against state authority, the gradual strengthening of the insurgents despite the presence of the more powerful security mechanisms of the state, the cryptic killing of the then head of the state, the assumption of leadership by the other king amidst controversy and confusion, the agreement reached between opposite political poles in a dramatic way, their combined work to oust the king and also the political developments afterwards are the key events of this period. Of the events, some escalated conflict and the other had roles to diffuse it. The developments since the signing of 12-point agreement in Delhi
Although the Maoists reiterate that such a situation is transient, they seem to be acknowledging this reality, at least partially. Paradoxically, the grievances against which the incumbent Prime Minister had flexed his radical political muscle since 1996 are likely to be the potential source of another round of extremist politics in the country. It is apt to guesstimate in this line primarily because the fundamental conditions such as socio-economic insecurity and politico-cultural grievances are unlikely to be addressed easily. 'We are in transition now, but problems will be settled once peace process reaches the positive end' rhetoric of the leaders especially of the Maoists has been nothing more than a red herring. So, gloomy political future of Nepal
Similarly, growing alliance of the different marginalized groups ranging from the grassroots level to the legislature parliament will, for the political parties, be a stumbling block. So, democratic measures are also likely to be futile. The move of the caucus of Janjatis in the Constituent Assembly some weeks ago to foil the governmental decision of forming Experts' Committee for state restructuring has to be understood as the tip of the iceberg in this connection. Such an ability of the caucus members to be grouped and united for their cause by disregarding the corresponding party line of principle and decision will have implication in Nepali politics. It has also posed questions on whether or not party based democracy will flourish in Nepal
The argument here does not hint at the fear that the marginalized groups' endeavors for their rights will come as a snag against democratic order in the country. Rather, this is an assertion- Maoists' tactical move to emerge as an influential democratic political force and remain in rule, without addressing the war-era arousals and complexities but only through the call for economic progress, won't be free from challenges. For the Maoists to materialize their desire, they, on the one hand, have to be able to outpace the increasing frustration induced from socio-economic realities in the country through economic boom and benefits. On the other hand, they should succeed in instilling confidence in the elite interest groups. But, given the intra and inter-party tug of war, basically concerning the war-era issues of the Maoists and also due to personal interests of the leaderships, beating the accumulating frustration won't be an easy task. Similarly, expecting lasting support from the elite groups who generally are believed to possess vacillating nature is also a dream. The non-Maoist parties, of course, have sacrificed a lot during the period of the ongoing peace process, at the cost of peace in the country. It is inevitable that the parties will have to acquiesce at times while completing the peace process despite their reservation over many issues. The parties are also doomed to face further political loss by the time the next election is held, passing through the formal end of the ongoing peace process. We have some bases that this predictability won't be false. The Maoist leaders' explicit and often implicit expressions make out their desire to remain in rule for an extended period of time. Very recently, some views of the Maoists' top leaderships have been made public through media in this connection. PM Bhattarai's expression that he tends to run a marathon race and Prachanda's public expression to capture state power through election is a roundabout way of stating that the Maoists always want to remain in power.
The other parties have to read these expressions cautiously at this juncture, where ongoing peace process is changing its phase. It is high time the other parties analyze prudently whether or not they are likely to embark on a downward political journey. Contemporary situation of a country always demands proactive role from any political parties. Unfortunately, however, during the 15 years' time since 1996 the other parties are concerned with the Maoists' issues only. Especially after formal beginning of the peace process, the non-Maoist parties ended up getting political analyses. It is important to gauze through a litmus test on why and how much did the reactive tactics of the parties, amidst Achilles' heel of the Maoists while in governance, alter the judging power and conscience of the electoral masses? However, the parties have failed to brood over this aspect and rate themselves in retrospection. Rather, non-issue divides within the parties have surfaced with detrimental consequences for their internal health. Capitalizing on such a weakness, the Maoists have made the non-Maoist parties walk along the track as outlined by the former. They are also likely to compel the non-Maoist parties to follow the trajectory they envision in the future. During the whole peace process, very few efforts of the parties have countered or stopped the Maoists short. Very few decisions, moves or the backings of the parties have stopped the Maoist party from materializing its long term interests. Based on this reality and experiences, Maoists seem to have further encouraged to bonsai the non-Maoists parties even through democratic and constitutional means. They have established the needed infrastructures towards this direction. Whether or not the infrastructures will be utilized in the future for the political missions hinges on how honest all the political parties and their leaderships are. The Maoists, with their warring cadres and mindset had switched abruptly to peace some years ago. However, it could keep control over its cadres. This is not to argue that no breaches of agreements by the Maoist combatants and other cadres have been reported during the period. Rather, such breaches have to be understood to have been committed as per the interest and needs of the leadership rather than the unruly nature of the cadres. It is wrong to assume that the combatants disqualified through UNMIN verification, the YCL and other full-fledged cadres have started their regular personal and societal work being totally detached from the party. Similarly, the lack of attraction of the Maoist combatants to be rehabilitated; the hectic formal and informal visits of the Maoist top leadership to international power houses, be that supposedly for infrastructure development of tourism, regional programs, religion or other reasons seeking international support; seemingly and histrionically increased party faction within the Maoist party; alliance of the Maoists with the Tarai based parties; non-issue based internal conflict within the Nepali Congress; chronic internal feud within the CPN-UML and expression of desire by the head of the party on a possible party merger with the Maoists are some of the aspects of political analysis when it comes to the matter of future political course in Nepal. Also, these matters will certainly affect the forthcoming electoral result, power equation and position of the parties in the country.
As it saw impossible, the Maoist party, at least temporarily, seems to have given up its desire to run state affairs singly. Their interest now is to align with the Madhes based parties strategically. Continuance of this alliance will certainly alter the existing party position. However, the history of formation, unity and deconstruction of the Madhes based parties are unpredictable. So, how the trend proceeds will also determine the future of such an alliance. Although it is wrong to argue that the non-Maoist parties were and are fully lulled into a sense of complacency at the time of initiating and accelerating the peace process, it is not wrong to blame at the same time that the parties have failed to show up responsibly in the radar of the ongoing Maoist dominated political and peace process related development in the country. The Machiavellian moves of the Maoists, it seems, has not alarmed the non-Maoist parties. Rather, the leaderships, especially atop the party pyramid of the non-Maoist parties are oblivious to the position and size they will have in a federalized context. We often hear of their expression of smugness that they have been able to bring the Maoist party to a democratic mold. The worry of their cadres, however, is that there has gone something amiss and they may not have a politically pleasing future. For them, the worst, given the inability of their leaderships to bring the Maoists to the democratic framework without incurring its own loss, is behind them. Reaching to the extent of being displaced from one's own determined position in the name of bringing the radical opponent to the dominant position of state authority can never be a matter of success for any parties competing for power politics. As they were the ones to face the brutality of the armed conflict remaining at the forefront of warring situation, the cadres at the grassroots level want to see the conflict transformed into peace permanently. But, allowing the opponent to enjoy the lion's share in the name of peace can never be encouraging for the cadres.
The writer is affiliated to a leading organization in Nepal that works for Human Rights and Social Justice
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