By Ajit Kumar Singh
As Nepal appeared to be in clutching
distance of a permanent solution to its long-drawn conflict, it has been
plunged, abruptly, deep into political catastrophe.
With the major parties – Unified Communist Party
of Nepal-Maoist (UCPN-M), Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist
(CPN-UML), Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Democratic Madheshi Front (UDMF)
– failing to reach consensus on just a few unresolved issues on the Draft
Constitution, particularly on the restructuring of the state, the final
stipulated deadline, May 27, 2012, came and went. The existing Constituent
Assembly (CA) has now become defunct. Indeed, almost all the contentious
issues, most prominently including the integration of People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) cadres into the Nepal Army, had already been resolved.
The 601-member CA, elected in 2008, had been
mandated to complete the task of Constitution writing within two years, and to
oversee the peace process that began when the conflict ended in 2006. Since
then, the major parties reached a number of opportunistic agreements, to keep a
tenuous peace process alive, and amended the Interim Constitution, to extend
their own mandate beyond the stipulated two year deadline, on four occasions.
Following this pattern, on May 22, 2012, the UCPN-M led National Unity
Government registered the 13th Constitution Amendment Bill in Parliament, to
pave the way for a further three month extension of the CA’s term, in complete
disregard of the Supreme Court’s (SC) November 25, 2011, verdict, which
stipulated that the CA’s term was being extended for the last time, and the
body would cease to exist if the Constitution was not promulgated within the
extended term. In its verdict the SC had also asked the defendants to decide
the duration of the extension, after determining whether the Constitution would
be promulgated through a referendum, or to elect new CA, if the current CA
failed in its task. Not surprisingly, on May 24, 2012, the SC, responding to
the writs filed against the Government’s move to seek a further extension for
the CA, issued a ruling directing the Government not to proceed with the
Amendment to further extend the CA’s term.
In a last bid to salvage the CA, on May 25, 2012,
the major parties reportedly agreed to promulgate the Constitution by May 27,
2012, while leaving residual disputed issues for the “transformed legislature
parliament” to resolve. According to the agreement reached, the draft of the
Constitution was to be issued by the CA within the May 27, 2012, deadline, and
the parties would agree on the names and the number of Provinces before that.
Regrettably, however, no consensus could be
arrived at on the demarcation of Provinces. With no other legal alternative at
hand, on May 28, 2012, the Government called for elections to a new CA. Prime
Minister (PM) Baburam Bhattarai declared, “We have no other option but to go
back to the people and elect a new Assembly to write the Constitution. Though
we were unable to promulgate the constitution, we have decided to seek a
mandate through elections for a new Constituent Assembly on November 22.” The
PM stated, further, that he would be leading a caretaker Government until the
elections scheduled for November 22, 2012.
Meanwhile, the NC, the CPN-UML, and some fringe
parties, rejected the Government’s decision to hold fresh elections, and called
for public protests. The leaders of these parties met President Ram Baran Yadav
and urged him not to approve the ‘unconstitutional decision’ of the Government.
NC leader Ram Chandra Poudel claimed, “This is part of a Maoist plan to capture
power.” Senior CPN-UML leader Bhim Rawal stated that the PM’s move was a breach
of constitutional provisions, as there was no provision in the Interim
Constitution to hold another CA polls. “We are not opposed to going to the
polls, but we cannot endorse the Prime Minister’s unilateral move that violates
the constitutional provision,” he argued. “The Prime Minister should have made
an attempt to amend the provision of the Constitution before announcing the
fresh election by forging consensus,” he pointed out.
The CPN-UML vice chairperson Bidhya Bhandari
stated, on May 28, 2012, that her party was no more a part of the Government.
Earlier, on May 25, 2012, the NC had withdrawn from the Government, opposing
the Government’s May 22 decision to register the 13th Constitution Amendment
Bill in Parliament, to pave the way for a further three months extension of the
CA’s term.
The National Unity Government had been formed on May 5, 2012. While the NC
joined the Government on May 6, the CPN-UML, after initial opposition, joined
on May 16. Significantly, the National Unity Government was constituted after a
Five Point agreement reached between the major parties on May 3, 2012, which
stated:
- All members of the incumbent Cabinet will resign and a new Unity Government will be formed within two days, as per the earlier seven point agreement.
- All issues of Constitution drafting, including the state restructuring, form of governance, etc., will be resolved in three days.
- A new Statute for the Constitution will be promulgated before May 27. The present incumbent Prime Minister will leave office before May 27, and a Unity Government would be formed under the Nepali Congress to conduct elections within one year.
- All outstanding work on the peace process would be completed immediately, as per earlier agreements.
- Top leaders of the political parties will hold regular meetings to expedite the Constitution drafting process.
As in the past, the sanctity of this agreement
could not be maintained. Though the incumbent Cabinet resigned on May 4, 2012,
and a new Government was formed within two days, the Prime Minister’s abrupt
call for new elections and his assertion that he would lead the caretaker
Government, violates the terms of this last agreement.
Significantly, the issue of federalism has divided
the nation. The biggest concern is whether to go for single identity based
federalism or multiple identity based federalism. While the UCPN-M and its ally
UDMF are in favour of single-ethnicity based federalism, the NC and CPN-UML
have rejected their option. CPN-UML Vice Chairman Bam Dev Gautam thus noted
that “NC and UML proposed (the) multi-ethnic federal model.” Here, the NC
diluted its earlier stand of opposing ethnicity based federalism in toto,
arguing that state restructuring should be based on “economic and
administrative viability” and on geography. The number, size, naming and
mapping of the federal States has also evaded unanimity. While the UCPN and its
ally UDMF insist that the 14-state model or 10-state model suggested by the
Parliamentary Committee on State Restructuring and the State Restructuring
Commission, respectively, should be adopted, the NC and CPN-UML proposed a 11
and 12 States model, respectively. Moreover, the Madheshi leaders reiterated
their strong opposition to create multiple provinces in the Terai, and stuck to
their long standing demand for a ‘single autonomous Madhesh province’.
This fractious outcome resulted despite the fact
that the major parties had already agreed, on May 15, 2012, on an 11-province
federal structure. The names of the provinces were to be determined by the
elected State Assemblies themselves. The Federal States were to be carved out
on the basis of ethnicity, geography and language. The parties had also agreed
to constitute a Commission to determine the boundaries of the Provinces and to
go for a ‘mixed system’ of governance, with a directly elected President, who
would share powers with a Prime Minister elected from the Parliament.
The optimism which had reigned over the peace
process since the CA was established, after declaring Nepal a
Republic on May 28, 2008, now appears to have evaporated. The Government has
put Security Forces on a high alert, as thousands of protestors have come onto
the streets. Riot Police are patrolling the streets of capital Kathmandu. Though, there have been no significant reports
of violence, till the time of writing, the failure of the Political classes to
reach a consensual solution, have jeopardized the tentative peace in the
nascent Republic
of Nepal.
Ajit Kumar Singh is a Research Fellow, Institute for
Conflict Management
Courtesy: http://satp.org/
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