By Post Bahadur Basnet
Thabang
is a small village cloistered on the mid-western hills of Nepal, but it began
to steal the limelight after the Maoists declared their Protracted People’s War
in the spring of 1996 in an apparent bid to establish a communist regime in the
Himalayan kingdom. This remote village in Rolpa district, which is home to some
300 households, most of them from the ethnic Kham Magar community indoctrinated
in the radical communist ideology, became the nerve centre of the Maoist
insurgency, and a hideout for the rebel leaders during the bloody war that
claimed the lives of over 15,000 people before it formally came to an end in
2006. Thabang is regarded as the Mecca for radical communists and a source of
inspiration for them.
And
this explains why Ram Bahadur Thapa “Badal”, the general secretary of the
breakaway Maoist party CPN-M led by Mohan Baidya “Kiran”, visited Thabang on
February 13, 2013 to celebrate the 18th anniversary of the People’s War and
reiterated his party’s commitment to “revolution”, even though, according to
him, Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”, chairman of the mother party UCPN
(Maoist), and Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, vice-chairman and Maoist ideologue,
“betrayed” the causes of the revolution. After all, it was Badal, one of the
key military strategists of the People’s War, who had played a major role in
laying the foundation of the Maoist insurgency in the mid-western hills through
the so-called “rural class struggle” even before the insurgency began in 1996.
The
political document initiated by Baidya, which was endorsed by the party’s
recently held general convention, stresses the need for ‘state capture’ to
liberate the “dispossessed and oppressed” in Nepal. But while the party’s
tactical line, as mentioned in the document presented by Kiran in the general
convention, is vague at best, the leaders close to him state that the party is
preparing for an “urban insurrection” using the achievements of the People’s
War as a springboard and floating the issue of “national sovereignty” as its
main agenda to garner the support of the hoi polloi. These leaders
allege that former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai, who stepped down recently,
is “pro-India” and that India had upped its ante in Nepal ever since his
election to the helm some 18 months ago.
There
is also widespread perception in Kathmandu that the formation of the current
election government led by Chief Justice Khilaraj Regmi was an “Indian design”,
and Baidya believes that the Nepalis, who are “too sensitive” on the issue of
nationalism, will join hands with him and take to the streets to overthrow the
government. Not surprisingly, then, Baidya, backed by 21 other fringe parties
and members of civil society, held protest programmes on the day Regmi was
sworn in by President Ram Baran Yadav, saying Regmi is heading the election
government as per the “design of the external powers”. The party has also
stated that the principal contradiction today is between the common Nepali people
and the “domestic comprador-bourgeoisie and feudal lords protected and
mobilized by India.”
Then,
what are the strategies of the radical party for state capture?
The
Baidya-driven radicals want to adopt the party line of the Second National
Conference in 2001 when they had decided to supplement their Chinese model of
revolution (protracted people’s war) with the Russian model (armed urban
insurrection). In 2010, the Maoists had even bussed in thousands of people from
across the country to Kathmandu for “an insurrection”, but failed to achieve
their goal due mainly to the strong opposition from the Kathmandu middle class
and the state mechanism that has remained intact. The Baidya faction however
thinks that the plan failed mainly due to the reluctance of Prachanda and
Bhattarai. While the objective condition for a communist revolution, Baidya has
argued, is already there, the revolutionaries are not yet mentally prepared to
effect such a revolution. Baidya argues that it is high time that they prepared
for a revolution mentally, though many commentators, given his organizational
strength and mass support, doubt his to ability to lead an insurrection.
The
Maoist radicals compare the 2006 mass movement with the February 1917 movement
in Russia that overthrew the Tsar and now they want to simulate the October
Revolution when Lenin had capitalized on the contradictions and widespread
chaos in Russia to capture the state by mobilizing the militia.
The
radicals make six points to justify why an insurrection in Nepal is imminent.
First, the Nepali state has long been in serious political crisis and no
solution seems to be on the horizon. Second, people are disillusioned with the
political system and want to overhaul it. Thirdly, the people from the lower
strata of society are having a hard time due to the soaring prices of consumer
goods, unaffordable fees for their children’s education in private schools, and
expensive healthcare system, among other things. Fourth, there is a
“nationalist” section in the Nepal Army and other security apparatuses that is
against “foreign interferences” in Nepal and will be ready to forge an alliance
with them. Fifth, a militant wing called National People’s Volunteers Bureau is
being formed to take charge of the situation. Finally, a “strong revolutionary
party with honest and committed cadres” has been formed to seize state power by
capitalizing on the protracted political and constitutional crisis.
Now
the radicals are focusing on urban-centric demonstrations and strikes. They are
mobilizing trade unions, students, slum dwellers, hawkers, and peasants and
ethnic people from the outskirts of Kathmandu and the surrounding districts.
Firstly, workers from the trade union of the UCPN (M) are defecting to the
CPN-M mainly because UCPN (M)-led unionists have allegedly been sold out to the
owners of the business houses, and can no longer protect and promote the
interests of the workers.
For
example, around 200 workers from the UCPN (M) joined the Baidya faction
accusing the leaders of corruption. The UCPN (M) has also antagonized the slum
dwellers which used to be the party’s constituency. It came as a shock to many
leftists in Kathmandu when the UCPN (M)-led government demolished around 250
huts along the banks of the Bagmati River for occupying public land illegally.
Baidya is also cashing in on that move of the UCPN (M). He is also supposed to
have a good support base among the ethnic groups. Many prominent Maoist leaders
from various ethnic groups are with his faction. While Baidya prioritizes class
over ethnicity, he has clearly stated that his party is ready to address the
issue of inclusion and identity.
The
role of students in Nepal’s politics has always been very significant and, as
per the expectation of the Baidya group, many young students are likely to join
them because of their “revolutionary zeal and leftist adventurism.” They have
always been instrumental in effecting general strikes and played very active
roles in the 1990 and 2006 mass movements.
And
finally, chances are high that the party may join forces with the rightists and
royalists whom his party calls “nationalist” forces. And, the possibility of
the Hindu fundamentalists, who want Nepal to become a Hindu state, joining
forces with Baidya to derail the whole political process cannot be ruled out.
But
the radical party is likely to get into crisis if the election takes place as
per the plans of the Maoist-led government. Various reports state that only
around 30 percent of the cadres joined the new CPN-M when it split from the
UCPN (Maoist) in June 2012. The party has committed cadres, but it lacks
popular support across the country and its chances of performing well in the
elections are slim. The Baidya faction will then have no time to organise and
marshal its forces for either participating in the elections or sabotaging the
process. It may instead lead to intra-party disputes over whether the party
should participate in the election or not, which could even lead to yet another
split in the Baidya faction of the Maoist party with one of the factions again
holding on to the ultra-radical Maoist ideology and opting for a violent path
to seize state power. The left wing political parties of Nepal are infamous for
factionalism and splits. The Bolshevik style intervention by the Baidya faction
threatens to take Nepal back to yet another round of social and political
turmoil.
Views
expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
IDSA or of the Government of India
March 20, 2013
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