By Sunanda K Datta – Ray
China has plotted to
have India preoccupied with
turbulent events in South Asia. This has
prevented New Delhi
from expanding its influence globally. We must break free
The restrictions imposed on hundreds of Tibetans during General Liang
Guanglie’s visit may be the least part of the problem of achieving a
Sino-Indian rapprochement. But it confirmed again that the challenge transcends
bilateral disputes to embrace Asian and even global issues. It is a question of
reconciling the projected self-perception and national interests of the two
nations within the framework of the 21st century and beyond. India’s
coherent response can be forged only in cooperation with other Governments that
also have a stake in regional peace, growth and stability.
Tibet is only one complication. The huge volume of
Sino-Indian trade, and its essentially colonial character, is another. Pakistan is a third factor, especially with
Defence Minister AK Antony taking serious note of “the infrastructure
development by China
at the border and their (Chinese) undertaking infrastructure projects in
Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.” There is
the further question of the South China Sea where Chinese claims are contested
by several members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations whose most
recent meeting in Phnom Penh
exposed the extent of disagreement.
None of this argues for a breach in bilateral ties. It’s a welcome sign
that Gen Liang’s visit (the first high-level contact since Mr George Fernandes
met Mr Coo Gangchuan in March 2004) means reactivation of the defence
Memorandum of Understanding signed in May 2006. It should cause no discomfort
in this country if renewed defence exercises are followed by cooperation in Afghanistan, Myanmar
and Africa. The purpose should not be to
isolate and ostracize China
(as the Americans did for so many years) but to integrate it in a system of
rules and regulations so that it is obliged to abide by international norms.
If China’s high diplomatic
profile today pays tribute — whether or not this is acknowledged — to
Jawaharlal Nehru’s statesmanship before and after Bandung
when China had no other
friend, it is also a consequence of the use China has made of independence. The
consequences of that spectacular economic revolution offer a lesson to all
developing countries. China’s military prowess — its ability to seize the
Paracel Islands, convert Tibet into a potential launching pad and arm Pakistan
so that it dreams of parity with India — is a product of economic success.
The revolution is by no means complete. Henry Kissinger believes that China will
refrain from international adventurism because of domestic problems like low
per capita income for hundreds of millions of people, regional disparity,
growing inter-personal inequality, environmental degradation and mounting
public protests for a variety of reasons. The Bo Xilai scandal and last week’s
demotion of a close ally of President Hu Jintao, whose son was involved in a
fatal car crash involving a Ferrari, are instances of the social problems China faces.
The so-called princelings, offspring of party leaders who seek to combine
communist autocracy with capitalist indulgence, may change the character of China’s
political leadership.
But no matter who rules in Beijing,
Robert D Kaplan’s view of China
as an “uber-realist” power continues to hold good. The Middle Kingdom complex
that Nehru deplored is stronger than ever now that China has a stranglehold on
American treasury bonds, promises to be the world’s next biggest economy, and
is Asia’s unchallenged great power. “China,
in my view, does not want a rival in Asia,” Mr
Brajesh Mishra was reported as saying. “Its main agenda is to keep India
preoccupied with events in South Asia so it is constrained from playing a more
important role in Asian and global affairs.” Mr Kissinger corroborated this
indirectly in On China when he said that a confusion among its neighbours was
welcome.
According to a BBC poll, 38 per cent of Indians have a negative view of
China.
A similar survey in China
would probably show that most Chinese have no opinion of India at all.
Those few who do spare a thought for the country consider India a dirty,
third-rate sort of place. But no one can be entirely sure whether this truly
reflects Chinese thinking or is a strategic pose. One indication is that the
Chinese have more than twice as many media correspondents in Delhi
(many of whom have mastered Hindi) as India
has in Beijing.
Yet, China’s media, apart
from the hawkish and alarmist Global Times, carries far less about India than Indian papers do about China.
What does this curious imbalance signify? Are the dozen Chinese
correspondents in Delhi really spies, as a
Western diplomat accredited to India
and with experience of China
suggests? Whatever the answer, so many Hindi-speaking Chinese would not be
posted in India if India were not
taken seriously. The Chinese are aware that India’s pool of scientific and IT
knowledge, its military potential, economic resources, geographical location,
consensual democratic governance and the demographic advantage of youth make it
a power to be reckoned with in the future.
“It is easy to accuse the Chinese of betrayal, as Nehru did after the
1962 war, but a clear awareness that deception is, after all, an integral
element of Chinese strategic culture, may have spared us much angst in the
past” Mr Shyam Saran said in his recent K Subrahmanyam Memorial lecture. “Such
awareness should certainly be part of our confronting the China challenge
in the future.” Mr Saran noted, as several American scholars had earlier
pointed out, that while insisting on India’s
categorical assertion that it regards Tibet
an integral part of China,
it has persistently wriggled out of making a similar statement in respect of Sikkim and India. Clearly, China is
keeping open a window of opportunity.
India needs to demonstrate similar foresight. The
tendency now is to attach too much importance to trivial details like China referring to India
as a partner and not a rival, a Chinese dignitary omitting references to
activity in occupied Kashmir or even refusing
a visa to someone from Arunachal Pradesh. Let China cling to its illusions. India’s
strength lies in the development of its nuclear deterrent, the deployment of its
air force, the reach of its missiles and, above all, in the prosperity of its
citizens. It will then be able to make the most of the transfer of 60 per cent
of the American Navy to the Asia-Pacific region and the cooperation of
countries like Japan and Australia in offering the rest of Asia a more fulfilling alternative.
Courtesy: Daily Pioneer
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