US muscle flexing will result in regional conflict in Himalayan Asia: Nepal Expert

Deepak Gajurel

Assistant Professor, Political Science, TU, Nepal.

Originally published by Telegraph Weekly, Kathmandu, November 16, 2011, and can be accessed at: http://www.telegraphnepal.com/opinion/2011-11-16/us-muscle-flexing-will-result-in-regional-conflict-in-himalayan-asia:-nepal-expert.html
 

Q1. How you see country's politics?

Deepak Gajurel: It's a mess. But I see it as the natural consequence of what we have been doing for the last five years. It is now proved, in Nepal as well, that bullet and ballot cannot go together. I don't foresee any positively desired conclusion of the current process. I am certain.

Q2. Some claim that in Nepali politics, main issues get diverted as and when some other events crops up. Why our leaders detach themselves with the main issues?

Deepak Gajurel: They are doing so because they are not in a position to do what they desire. The 'peace and constitution making process' has not been the Nepali citizens' agenda, and it was/is not the need of the nation. The whole process was driven and imposed by external forces. So, the domestic political players find one way or the other to dupe the public, so as to lengthen their loot. This is how I see to it personally.

Q3. We have Dr. Bhattarai as Prime Minister. He is loved by some and criticized by others. Why is he being made the target by the ones who claim themselves as strong nationalists?

Deepak Gajurel: I take this tendency as normal in terms of what our politicians have been doing. This prime minister too is not different than the previous ones, when it comes to the question of national interests. The critics are from the same basket, not nationalists in actual sense. Perhaps you got the point?

Q4. Some even claim that Bhattarai has become Nepal PM as preferred by the Indian establishment? Is he an Indian man?

Deepak Gajurel: Given the past five years' externally guided political course in Nepal, it is difficult, almost impossible, to find any 'Nepali man' at the helm of politics.

Q5. One Indian newspaper recently wrote an article wherein Bhattarai has been dubbed as an Indian spy? Do you agree to this charge?

Deepak Gajurel: I am confused on the issues you raised. Everyone would be in dilemma when you see one leader accusing others, even his own party boss, of being RAW's agent or otherwise. A majority of the leaders from all major parties in Nepal claim that he/she has the main role in 12-point Delhi agreement. By this, they are trying to be the darling of the South. Thus, the question becomes irrelevant whether one is someone's spy or not.

Q6. Maoist party is in a mess because of the issues floated by his own party's hardliners which believes that the four point and the seven point fresh pacts goes against Nepal's national interest. How you take those four and seven point deals?

Deepak Gajurel: The recent deals are the new reprints of the preciously signed various agreements made during last half a decade. None of those have been implemented so far, for obvious reasons. So, I don't see any point in having these pacts that would help promote Nepal's national interests. I take these pacts as 'Ghiu Bechuwa and Tarbar Bechuwa.' And nothing more than that.

Q7. The Afghani President in Maldives suggested Nepal PM to solve Nepali problems without seeking foreign support. Why the Afghani president may have provided such advice to Nepal MP?

Deepak Gajurel: Perhaps Afghan leader was speaking of his own experiences. Another point I see here could be shifting power equation in the Himalayan Asia. Karzai could be hinting some types of whirl-pool in the making in the region.

Q8. BIPPA agreement is being criticized even by declared Indo-pendent parties. Is BIPPA really an agreement that is entirely against our country? Do you also feel that Dr. Bhattarai cheated his own nation and has paid back the price of Indian investment?

Deepak Gajurel: Not only Dr. Bhattarai is paying back the price. Everyone at the helm of the power in Nepal since some years back have been paying back the prices in one way or the other. I am not surprised.

Q9. Now let’s talk of the recent developments taking place in what you call Himalayan Asia. Indian think-tanks have, since some weeks back, been talking about possible Sino-Indian conflict. As you have been deeply studying relations between states in the Himalayan Asian, what scenario do you see in this context?

Deepak Gajurel: As a section of Indian strategic experts are saying, 'With the 50th anniversary of the 1962 invasion approaching, history is in danger of repeating itself.' Both China and India are reported to have been stepping up their military presence in their disputed borders. The issue of Indian presence in the South China Sea also looks intensifying. India and Vietnam agreed in September to jointly explore oil resources in the South China Sea, despite China’s indisposition and amid strains in their ties with China. India is trying its strong presence in China's backyard, which China sees as an aggressive move.

In the contexts of smaller nations in Himalayan Asia, China is penetrating smoothly signaling its strength, economic, diplomatic, and military and etc. Indians see this Chinese move as 'encirclement of India.' Given the recent media and experts' flare-ups against each other, the situation seems to have approached a serious level. However, nothing can be said for sure at this point of time. Let things mature.

Q10. The United States' top officials have recently been speaking about intensifying its role in Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region. How do you analyze United States' concerns and interests in this region?

Deepak Gajurel: Yes, definitely the United States has interests in this region, especially in the Pacific rim and India Ocean littoral. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently declared, 'What will happen in Asia in the years ahead will have an enormous impact on our nation’s future. We cannot afford to sit on the sidelines and leave it to others to determine our future for us.' This clearly indicates that Washington is doing every possible means to contain its potential rivals, economically and militarily both, in this region. What I see is that United States, in the days ahead, will accelerate to flex its muscle power in many ways, even in disguise, and also as proxies. Such proxies could result in regional conflicts in Himalayan Asia.