Nov 16, 2011

Nepal: PM's nationalist credentials questioned

We have been given to understand that Nepal Prime Minister Babu Ram Bhattarai is a highly qualified citizen of this country. We took it for granted because he is what we have been told. We were also told that he is a strong nationalist. We also consumed it considering that time permitting he could be tested. Last but not the least, we got the information that he is a radical revolutionary and that he wanted to transform the entire Nepali society as per his new theories based on the principles and practices adopted once upon a time by Chairman Mao. We also gulped this believing in PM Bhattarai that he will really transform the “feudal” society, as he and his entire party took it, and make a new Nepal wherein nothing of that sort will remain which his party disliked and conversely wanted or better say preferred to herald in Nepal.
 
However, things appear not to have gone as per our beliefs and the presumptions that we have had made upon listening to some wise counsels which had been injected in to our brains by our friends and detractors both.
 
Conversely, what has come to the fore is that Nepali Prime Minister is an introvert person completely ridden with inferiority complex. He smiles rarely.
 
His drum beat of steering the government complying with strict austerity measures remains now exposed with his picking up of some fifty tom-dick and harry political duffers as ministers for his ever expanding cabinet. The numerical strength of fifty ministers presumably bring some problems even to the Prime Minister as he may not recall the exact names of those whom he has elevated to the ministerial ranks. Jokingly it is said in Kathmandu that the one collides with you while on your evening or morning walk could be a Minister of the Bhattarai cabinet. By extension, what could also be presumed that the every second vehicle that rolls in Kathmandu streets could be of some "honorable" ministers now housed in Bhattarai’s life saving coterie?  
 
Interestingly, Bhattarai prefers criminals to be inducted in his cabinet. The media tell us about this fact.
 
Now as regards Bhattarai’s strong nationalist credentials. Well, how much he loves his nation has best been exemplified by the pact that he very freshly signed with the Indian government-the BIPPA-nick named Bhattarai’s India Protection and Promotion Agreement. This agreement, apart from the Nepali academic circles, has been taken by his own party comrades as an anti-national deal which has been signed in order to please India so that the Indian blessings will continue to remain in Bhattarai’s favor which in turn could extend his now sinking longevity in government.
 
After all what could be expected from a JNU 'indoctrinated' graduate?
 
Unfortunately, prior to signing this anti-national agreement, neither Bhattarai took his own party men in to confidence nor he discussed about the issue with the major political parties. He did it on his own. Introvert persons act at times in a similar manner.
 
Some even opine that Nepal PM Bhattarai by signing the dangerous BIPPA with the Indian regime has just paid the price of the salt that he may have consumed in tons during his declared and highly exposed hibernation in India under Indian government’s protection. Undeniably Bhattarai was in India during the so called Maoist’s people’s War-a war that he fought against his own motherland which devastated his own country. Look the tryst with destiny.
 
Nobody knows so far as to what sorts of other pacts Bhattarai may have signed or have assured to his former NOIDA and JNU friends and their ring masters. However, let’s presume that since it is a democracy thus things will surely come to public which eventually would further expose Baburam’s nationalist credentials.
 
At yet another plane, the sudden and serious talks that the Afghani President Hamid Karzai had with Nepal Prime Minister Bhattarai is no less enlightening.
In fact President Karzai provided a wise counsel to Bhattarai suggesting him in private, on the sidelines of the SAARC Male Summit, to refrain from seeking foreign assistances for the settlement of the Nepali home grown issues and problems.
 
In doing so, President Karzai may have wanted to sound the immature Nepal Prime Minister not to readily abide by the sermons of his ‘New Delhi’ friends on matters related with Nepal’s Peace and constitution drafting process. Perhaps Karzai in an implicit manner hinted Bhattarai that since he had enough of Indian and others' “support” and thus suggested him not to seek any “valuable” interference in Nepali affairs from the land of his enlightenment.
 
If so then let’s presume that for Karzai too the Indian helps have already become enough and that he wants no further helps for his country from the Indian side. No help from India is the best help perhaps.
 
All in all, Nepal PM Bhattarai had a luxury trip to Maldives. He went there and saw the dazzling TUNA fish swimming in the Male high rising waters. For Bhattarai, Dr. Man Mohan Singh’s presence in Male was the beginning and the end of it all.
 
Back home, Bhattarai’s comrade in arms are not to settle for less. They have already threatened that Bhattarai’s India bend must be exposed and that this was the perfect time to take a revenge that was long overdue.
 
No wonder that tired of these allegations emanating from his own party seniors, Bhattarai has begun himself floating the idea that Nepal now needed a new national unity government. This does mean that he has already sensed that his sticking to the Chair will further deteriorate the country’s troubled politics more. But is he speaking his inner heart? Perhaps not because the charm of the Chair is more, presumably, desirable to Madame Hisila Yami Bhattarai-the better half of Nepal PM, because it is this Chair which is being used, as reports have it, by Mrs. Bhattarai to penetrate into the government affairs. Some even say that Mrs. Bhattarai is the head of an unconstitutional power center.
 
All in all, Nepal PM Bhattarai is being questioned from various quarters for his fresh dealing with the Indian establishment. Perhaps it is time for Bhattarai to prove his real nationalistic credentials or else he would definitely be taken as a distinguished Nepali national to have cheated his own motherland in a merciless manner.
(Courtesy: Telegraph weekly, Nepal)

Nov 15, 2011

China’s Maritime Strategy Being Tested Amid South China Sea Disputes

By Gao Suying, Capital Week

(Courtesy: http://china-wire.org/?p=16390)

The current situation has reflected a lack of ocean strategy, under which, China has been under a passive state when confronting with surrounding countries in disputed waters

China’s maritime strategy is being tested after oil drillers funded by hundreds of countries having flooded into the South China Sea, with India the latest in the rush for oil despite protests from China, who claims sovereignty over the waters.

“The signing of the agreement between India and Vietnam in oil and gas development in the disputed region has an obvious intent to ‘rock to the boat’,” a person told the Capital Week.

Behind such a deal are clouts from the United States and Russia, analysts say, adding that a joint activity between India and some other countries as a counterweight against China should also not be ruled out.
India “rocks the boat”

India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) announced on October 12 that its overseas investment arm ONGC Videsh reached a three-year agreement with Vietnam Oil and Gas Corporation, or the PetroVietnam for developing long-term cooperation in the oil sector, including oil in the South China Sea, in part of which Vietnam also claimed sovereignty.

That came one day after Vietnam signed an agreement in principle to solve disputes over South China Sea.

China last week warned India to abandon its agreement with ONGC and stay away from disputed waters of the South China Sea. “The fact that China and Vietnam have agreed to settle maritime disputes through negotiations has nothing to do with a third party,” China foreign ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said, adding that any third parties should respect the bilateral efforts between parties concerned to resolve the disputes.

India’s intention of the intervention, which has complicated the issue, is no other than “rocking the boat,” an industry source who did not want to be named told Capital Week.

India is well likely to sell some of the projects involved in the Vietnam agreement to western countries, as it doesn’t have an edge in technologies of deep-water oil-gas exploitation, compared with China and western countries, according to the source.

Further, for a country where 70 percent of oil it requires depends on importation, it is far from a bargain to develop deep-water oil-gas fields in South China Sea, due to higher cost than importing costs of oil from the Middle East region, the person added.

“That is not in line with business logic, technologically or financially, and its (India’s) intention to rock the boat is very clear,” the person said.

Driven forces behind India & Vietnam Deal

Oil has become a key for Indian economy to retain a sustainable growth, as an increase of five dollars in oil prices is expected to drag down growth by 0.5 percent and add 1.4 percent to inflation, official data showed.
In New Delhi’s energy strategy, which stretches for oil and gas resources from three directions, the northern line is the most difficult to develop, another industry source told reporters.

Russia had been opposed to the transportation of gas from Central Asia, Russia’s backyard, down to India, until July 2011 when it advanced cooperation with China in energy sector. The line stretches from Turkmenistan, to Afghan, Pakistan and then to India, taking place of the existing line from Central Asia to China and then India.

The person said Russia would hope to provide technological support in the construction of the supposed line for more say in the line, which, obviously, would violate others’ interests.

So, based on strategic energy demands, the Unites States and Russia would be probably behind the development of disputed oil and gas blocks in South China Sea between India and Vietnam, according to the resource.

He explained further that the United States is likely to provide technological support for India while Russia is expected to co-operate with Vietnam to counterbalance China.

Back in 1980s, in fact, Russia (then Soviet Union) had helped Vietnam develop eight oil blocks in South China Sea, one of which had an annual production of 130,000 toones, according to public data available.

China’s maritime strategy being tested

So far, Vietnam has controlled as much as 30 islands in South China Sea, a country that has contended with China fiercely in recent times. The oil-gas blocks it published pending for international bidding include most of the waters of South China Sea.

Some 40 islands in the South China Sea are now subject to encroachment while a total of 800,000 square kilometers of waters are claimed whole or partial sovereignty by surrounding countries. There are now more than 1,000 offshore wells being operated in the region with annual production of nearly 30 million tons. However, none of them belongs to China.

“Beijing’s mercurial approach to strategy in nearby waters may be attributed in part to the fact that it lacks a maritime strategy yoking various implements of national power to national policy,” the U.S. Jamestown Foundation said in its China Brief issued in April 2011.

It also cited Rear Adm. Yin Zhuo, chairman of the Expert Committee on Navy Informationalization as saying that “China does not have a clearly defined ocean strategy at the national level.”

China has a growing economic dependence with surrounding countries and regions, but at the same time, disputes over maritime development highlight challenges facing China with intervention of periphery forces, an analysis paper obtained by Capital Week showed.

The current situation has reflected a lack of ocean strategy, under which, China has been under a passive state when confronting with surrounding countries in disputed waters, it said.

Oct. 14, 2011

Why Philippines again churns up South China Sea ?

By Li Hongmei
(Courtesy: news.xinhuanet.com / Nov. 15, 2011)

The forthcoming 19th ASEAN summit to be held in Bali, Indonesia seems more noteworthy than before, as it will see the formal entry of the United States and Russia into the East Asia summit grouping.

Also, leaders of ASEAN countries, its dialogue partners Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Republic of Korea and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon will be converging at the 19th ASEAN Summit and related Summits from Nov. 17 to 19.

In addition, “Initiatives” aimed at settling the South China Sea issue will be offered by the Philippine President Aquino III, as released by its Foreign Affairs Undersecretary.

Actually, it is no key highlight to the world, in that the Philippines, even at the 18th ASEAN Summit, proposed to establish a Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship, and Cooperation (ZoPFF/C) that seeks to segregate the disputed South China Sea islands from the undisputed parts to put an end to “military intrusions” in the region.

Click on the following link to read the full article:



Alarming Arms Purchasing Quest in South Asia

By Zaheerul Hassan 
(Courtesy: Asian Tribune / Nov. 14, 2011

The 17th. SAARC Summit was held from 10-11th November 2001 in Addu City of Maldives. During this time a major participant (India) was concluding her final deal with USA and France for purchasing of F-35 aircrafts and Submarines, whereas rest of the members including the Indians were negotiating for peace, trade, transport, economic integration, security issues, such as piracy, climate change, and good governance etc.
Indian quest for ‘Arms purchasing’ is directly threatening regional peace and security of the countries like China, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. This race of increasing artillery between Indio-China and Indo-Pakistan has been sped up when India had daydream of replacing China as regional power after the disintegration of Great Soviet Union. In this regard US is fully supporting Indian desire of expansion because both have common objective of repressing China. ... Click the following link to read full article: 



Nov 11, 2011

शान्ति प्रक्रिया: विदेशी स्वार्थको बितण्डापूर्ण प्रयोग

दीपक गजुरेल
दुई हप्ता अघि माओवादी, काँग्रेस, एमाले, मधेशवादी लगायतबीच भएको सात बुँदे सहमतिले 'आशाको किरण' देखाएको प्रचार व्यापक रुपमा गरिँदैछ । यो सहमतिले 'शान्ति प्रक्रिया' पूरा हुने र 'लोकतान्त्रिक गणतन्त्र नेपाल' को नयाँ संविधान सजिलै बन्ने कुरामा 'विश्वास' गर्न नेपालीहरुलाई एकप्रकारले दबाव दिइँदैछ, प्रायोजित शैलीमा प्रचार गरेर । तर यथार्थ यो भन्दा फरक छ । शान्ति प्रक्रिया टुङ्‍ग्याउने भनिएको यो सहमतिको विरोध मुख्य सत्ता साझेदारबाटै भैराखेको छ । सहमतिमा व्यक्त गरिएका 'प्रतिवद्धताहरु' व्यवहारमा कार्यान्वयन हुने कुरामा सत्तामा रहेकाहरु बाहेक कसैमा आशा छैन, र त्यस्तो आशा गर्ने आधार समेत देखिन्न, विगत्‍को प्रवृतिको पृष्ठभूमिमा । 'शान्ति प्रक्रिया' पहिले अनि संविधान, वा दुबै सँगै भन्ने विषयमा जेजस्तो विवाद भए पनि नयाँ संविधानका आधारभूत मान्यताहरुमा 'सहमति' बनेको छैन, सरोकारबालाहरुबीच । र त्यस्तो सहमति बन्ने सम्भावना कतै देखिएको पनि छैन । 

नयाँ संविधान कसरी ?
संबिधानले शासन प्रणालीका आधारभूत विषय र पक्षहरुलाई प्रष्टसंग व्यवस्था गर्नु पर्छ । सरकारका तीन अङ्ग, व्यवस्थापिका, कार्यपालिका, न्यायपालिकाको स्वरुप कस्तो हुने, ती निकायबीचको सम्बन्ध तथा शक्ति बाँडफाँट कसरी गर्ने, संबैधानिक अङ्गका रुपमा क–कस्लाई राख्ने र तिनलाई के–कस्ता अधिकार तथा दायित्व दिने जस्ता कुराको ठोस निर्णय गरिनु पर्छ, संबिधानको मसौदालाई अन्तिम रुप दिनु अघि ।

त्यत्तिकै महत्वपूर्ण पक्ष, मुलुकको संघीय प्रणाली कस्तो हुने, के आधारमा र कसरी इकाइहरु निर्माण गर्ने, केन्द्र र राज्य बीच शक्तिको बाँडफाँट कसरी गर्ने जस्ता कुराहरु छन्‍ । नागरिकका अधिकार, स्रोत–साधन जस्ता महत्वपूर्ण अन्य विषय त आफ्नो ठाउँमा छँदैछन्‍, जसमा सही निर्णय गरिएन भने संबिधान दिगो हुन सक्तैन ।

संबिधान लेखनमा महत्वपूर्ण पक्ष तथा मुद्दाहरुमा अहिलेसम्म ठोस टुङ्गो लगाइएको छैन । राजनीतिक शक्तिहरुबीच व्यापक तथा विपरित ध्रुवीय असमझदारी घट्‍नुको साटो बढ्‍दो छ, संबिधानमा समेट्‍नु पर्ने आधारभूत विषयहरुका बारेमा । सत्ता साझेदारी, भागबण्डा जस्ता मुलुक लुट्‍ने काममा आपसमा हानाहान गर्ने राजनीतिक दलहरुको प्रवृत्तिले नेपाल राष्ट्रको संबिधानमा व्यवस्था गर्नु पर्ने गंभीर मुद्दाहरुमा कसरी टुङ्गो हुने हो ?

तर नेपालमा गएको पाँच बर्षमा हाम्रा राजनीतिक दल तथा शक्तिहरुले देखाएको प्रवृत्तिको पृष्ठभूमिमा केही दिनमै संबिधान तयार हुन बेर छैन । असहमति, विवाद, झगडा, तानातानबीच केही काम नगरी बस्ने, अनि अन्तिम समयमा 'सहमति' गरेर निर्णय गर्ने प्रवृत्ति हाम्रा नेताहरुले देखाएकै हुन्‍ । हाल कायम रहेको अन्तरिम संबिधान जारी गर्दाको जस्तो प्रवृत्ति नयाँ संबिधान निर्माणमा पनि दोहोर्‍याएर नेपाली जनताले रातारात नयाँ 'गणतान्त्रिक' संबिधान जारी भएको सुन्ने स्थिति नआउला भन्न सकिन्न ।

स्मरणीय छ, त्यसबेलाको सात दलीय गठबन्धनको एक पक्षका नेताले अन्तरिम संविधान 'हिन्दीमा लेखेर ल्याइएको र त्यसलाई नेपालीमा अनुवाद गरेर जारी गरिएको' बताएका थिए । (रेडियो सगरमाथा, २०६३ साल माघ २ गतेको आजका कुरा कार्यक्रममा बोल्दै नेपाल मजदूर किसान पार्टीका अध्यक्ष नारायणमान बिजूक्छ) । बिजुक्छेको उक्त रहश्योद्‍घाटनको सप्रमाण खण्डन आज सम्म कहिँ, कतै र कसैबाट भएको पाइएको छैन । यस्तै स्थिति, तर फरक ढंगले फेरि पनि आउन सक्छ । 'जसरी भए पनि' नयाँ नेपालको संबिधान बनाउन गाह्रो नहोला । संबिधान लेख्न जान्ने २/४ जनालाई जिम्मा दिने हो भने एकै रातमा पनि बन्न सक्छ संबिधान । खुरुखुरु सार्नु वा अनुवाद गर्नु त हो !

तर, संबिधान लेख्नु तथा जारी गर्नु एउटा कुरा हो, त्यो दिगो हुनु अर्कै कुरा हो । २०६३ साल माघ १ गते हाल कायम रहेको अन्तरिम संबिधान जारी भएको भोलिपल्ट, माघ २ गतेदेखि सो संबिधानका प्रतिहरु मुलुकमा जलाइएको धेरैले बिर्सेको नहुनु पर्ने हो । यो पृष्ठभूमिमा अब बन्ने संबिधान कस्तो हुनु पर्छ, के र कसरी काम गर्नु पर्छ भन्ने राम्रो ज्ञान हाम्रा 'जिम्मेवार' नेताहरुमा होला भन्ने आशासम्म गर्न सकिन्छ । विश्वकै उत्कृष्ट भनिएको नेपाल अधिराज्यको संबिधान २०४७ को समयमा जन्माइएको मारकाट तथा विध्वँसको स्मरण सम्बन्धित सबैले गर्नु उपयुक्त होला । त्यस्तै २०६३ सालमा जारी भै हाल कायम रहेको अन्तरिम संबिधान जारी हुनासाथ नेपालमा मारकाट र विध्वँस फरक ढंग तथा प्रकृतिवाट शुरु भएको र त्यसले सिर्जना गरेको वर्तमान पनि राम्ररी बिचार गर्नु आवश्यक नै होला ।

राष्ट्रको आवश्यकता
सम्पूर्ण नेपाली नागरिकले स्वामित्व ग्रहण गर्न सक्ने संबिधान बनाएर मुलुकमा राजनीतिक स्थायित्व दिनु आजको राष्ट्रिय आवश्यकता हो । यो कुरा राष्ट्र सञ्चालक नेता तथा शक्तिहरुले राम्ररी बुझेका छन्‍ । तर यो राष्ट्रिय आवश्यकता पूरा गर्ने दिशामा गर्नु पर्ने जति काम चाहिँ गरिएको छैन । भन्न त सहमतिबट अघि बढ्‍ने भनिन्छ, तर यथार्थ त्यसको विपरित छ । संबिधानसभामा झण्डै बहुमत रहेको मुलुकको सबै भन्दा ठूलो शक्ति आन्तरिक विवादमा छ । माओवादी र मधेशवादी दलहरु मिलेर बनेको सरकार मूलत: भागबण्डा गरेर मुलुक लुट्‍ने ध्याउन्नामा छ । सम्बन्धितहरुलाई 'चित्त बुझाएर' सत्ता टिकाउन मुलुकले थाम्नै नसक्ने ठूलो मन्त्रिपरिषद बनाइएको छ ।

प्रमुख 'लोकतान्त्रिक' दल काँग्रेस, एमालेहरु सरकारले गरेका निर्णयहरुको विरोध गरेरै आफ्नो दायित्व पूरा भएको ठानिराखेका छन्‍ । यसबेला मुलुकमा हालिमुहाली गरिराखेका शक्तिहरु, खास गरी शान्ति प्रक्रियाका दुई पक्ष विपरित ध्रूवबाट अघि बढ्‍दैछन्‍ । र लामो समयदेखि संबिधान निर्माण प्रक्रियालाई ओझेलमा पारिएको छ । यो काम त प्राथमिकतामा पारिएकै छैन ।

राजनीतिक शाक्तिहरु बीच द्वन्द्व चर्कँदो छ । 'मैले भने जसरी नहुने हो भने ...' जस्ता धम्कीको प्रयोग नेपाली राजनीतिमा भैराखेको छ । जिम्मेवार नेताहरु संबिधान बेलैमा बन्छ भन्नुको सट्टा 'संविधान बनाउनुको विकल्प छैन' भन्दैछन्‍ । संबिधान बनेन भने दुर्घटना हुन्छ जस्ता अभिव्यक्ति सामान्य भैसकेको छ । यी सम्पूर्ण नकारात्मक अनुमानहरुलाई गलत्‍ साबित गर्दै 'शान्ति प्रक्रिया' को आरम्भ देखि भनिँदै आए जसरी मुलुकलाई अघि बढाउने दायित्व राजनीतिक दलहरुको हो । तर, विडम्बना, यस दिशामा जिम्मेवार राजनीतिक दल तथा तिनका नेताहरु गम्भीर भएको पाइन्न ।

सहमतिको आधारमा नयाँ नेपाल निर्माण गर्ने प्रतिबद्धता व्यक्त गर्ने दल र नेताहरुबीच यो दूरी, यो द्वन्द्व,  यो झगडा किन ? कहिँ हामीबाट आधारभूत पक्षमै त्रुटी भएको त होइन ? दिल्लीमा गराइएको १२ बुँदे सम्झौतादेखि अहिलेसम्मको प्रगति हेर्दा यो सम्पूर्ण प्रक्रिया नै गलत्‍ बाटोमा हिँडाइएको लगभग प्रष्ट भैसकेको छ । २०६२ साल मंसिरबाट शुरु गरिएको राजनीतिक यात्रा नेपाल राष्ट्रका लागि आवश्यक थियो र भन्ने प्रश्न गर्ने मौका हाम्रा 'लोकतन्त्र' का प्रवर्द्धक राजनीतिक खेलाडीहरुले नै  दिएका छन्‍ ।

दिल्ली सम्झौता, वृहत शान्ति सम्झौता, अन्तरिम संबिधान र अन्य सहमतिहरुमा भनिए अनुरुप राष्ट्रलाई टुङ्गोमा पुर्‍याएर स्थायित्व दिन सकियो भने आजसम्मको प्रकृया राष्ट्रको आवश्यकता थियो/हो भन्ने प्रमाणित हुनेछ । होइन, त्यो लक्ष्यमा पुग्न सकिएन भने चाहिँ गएको पाँच वर्षदेखि देखाइएको सम्पूर्ण तामझाम राष्ट्र तथा जनता विरोधी प्रयोग मात्र ठहरिने छ । त्यसैले, जिम्मेवारहरुले अब स्पष्ट पार्नु पर्‍यो, भाषण गरेर होइन, गरेर देखाउनु पर्‍यो, हामी कहाँ जाने हो ? कसरी त्यो लक्ष्यमा पुग्ने हो ? त्यसो भयो भने मात्र विगत्‍मा राष्ट्र तथा जनतालाई हिँडाइएको बाटो राष्ट्रको आवश्यकता थियो भनेर स्पष्टताका साथ भन्न सकिनेछ । अहिलेलाई चाहिँ यसै हो भन्न सकिने स्थिति छैन ।

यो सन्दर्भमा नेपाली राजनीतिक दल, तिनका नेता र शक्तिहरुले मात्र सोच्ने तथा जवाफ दिने होइन । नेपालमा 'लोकतन्त्र' र 'गणतन्त्र' ल्याउन मद्दत गर्ने, त्यो प्रक्रियालाई प्रत्यक्ष/परोक्ष समर्थन/सहयोग गर्ने र 'नेपालको आन्तरिक मामला' भनेर मौन बस्ने सबै विदेशी राष्ट्र/शक्तिहरुले पनि अब जवाफ दिने बेला आयो, नेपाली नागरिकलाई । आ–आफ्ना स्वार्थका लागि यी विदेशीहरुले नेपालमा बितण्डापूर्ण प्रयोग मात्र गरेका होइनन्‍ भन्ने पुष्टि गर्नु सम्बन्धित विदेशी शक्तिहरुको दायित्व हो । 

गजुरेल त्रिभूवन विश्वविद्यालयका राजनीतिशास्त्री हुन्‍ ।

हिमालय टाइम्स दैनिकमा प्रकाशित, कात्तिक २५, २०६८ (नोभेम्बर ११, २०११)

Nov 8, 2011

Buddha’s way


By: Yubaraj Ghimire

About a week before Nepal Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai embarked on a goodwill trip to India, he had announced a high-powered committee for the development of Lumbini, under the leadership of Prachanda, the chief of the Maoist party. This triggered speculation that in case Bhattarai felt unwelcome in India, he would turn to the north and involve China in a big way in the Lumbini project, apparently for the all-round development of the birth place of Lord Buddha.

There is a background to this speculation. The United Nations Industrial Development Organisation’s China chapter and the Beijing-backed Asia Pacific Exchange and Cooperation Foundation (APECF) had signed a deal in mid-July to turn Lumbini into a “special development zone”. Prachanda is one of the vice-chairpersons of the APECF. However, despite the fact that the Jhalanath Khanal-led government survived on the support of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-M), the then prime minister had politely told Prachanda that such a mega project could not and should not be brought in haste, without assessing its pros and cons.

While the Nepal government refrained from making any statement, Prachanda kept saying that he was determined to bring the project that was worth $3 billion. However, no master plan was discussed, the source of funding was not disclosed and the specific details of the project were not revealed. A release by the foundation just said, “What we are looking at here is a comprehensive project that brings together all aspects of economic development, including infrastructure upgrades, employment opportunities, environmental protection and, most notably, poverty alleviation.” The Chinese government authorities too went all out to promote the project, much to the dismay of many in Kathmandu.

Lumbini, 170 km west of Kathmandu and about 50 km from India’s southern border, attracts half a million tourists and pilgrims a year and is revered especially by Buddhists and Hindus. Interestingly, the groups and individuals involved in the initiative are mostly non-Buddhists or even atheists. Some were hardly votaries of non-violence that Buddha preached. Prachanda and Bhattarai’s insistence on appropriating the project is bound to bring into question many such issues.

However, something else changed once Prime Minister Bhattarai returned from Delhi, quite satisfied with the welcome he had got. The committee made New York, not Beijing, its first destination. The group has met UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon ostensibly to seek his support for the project — for a personal touch, his mother is Buddhist. Prachanda said he would request Ban to be the key figure of the project at the international level. Former UN secretary-general U Thant had taken personal interest in Lumbini’s development during his decade-long tenure until 1971 and a master plan had been prepared, but things did not progress as planned.

With the relationship between India and the Maoists apparently restored, Prachanda has also clarified that he is not going to depend on Beijing alone for the project. Prior to his departure to New York on Saturday, he said that he would also approach India for support. According to him, linking Lumbini with other Buddhist pilgrimage centres like Sarnath, Kushinagar and Bodh Gaya, is something uppermost in his mind, and that Lumbini will come up as a “global peace centre”.

Bhattarai has entrusted the Prachanda-led committee with this gigantic project at a time when the Maoist chief himself faces questions about his financial probity. He is being asked to furnish details by his party leaders about the levy — the party’s 237 legislators pay Rs 10,000 each month — and other financial matters that he handles. Moreover, the departure of Prachanda and other members of the committee to New York is also likely to hamper the work related to the peace process and the drafting of the constitution.
Is the Lumbini issue more important at this moment? There are fears that the promised $3 billion may not come to Nepal if the project is not pursued immediately. But like the source of those billions of dollars, the entire issue gets more and more mysterious.

(Courtesy: Indian Express)

हिमालयन एशियामा बहुपक्षीय घम्साघम्सी

दीपक गजुरेल
अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय सम्बन्धको प्रवृत्ति सधैँ एकनाश रहँदैन । शक्तिहरुको उतार चढावसँगै भूगोलको महत्व बढ्‍ने र घट्‍ने गर्छ । विश्वभर शासन गर्नेहरु समयक्रममा खुम्चिएर जान्छन्‍ भने अघि नगन्य रहेको अर्को राष्ट्र विश्व सम्बन्धलाई प्रभावित गर्न सक्ने हैसियतको बन्न पुग्छ । पहिलो र दोश्रो विश्व युद्धपछि विकसित अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय शक्ति सम्बन्धले क्रमैसँग यूरोपका विकसित राष्ट्रहरुलाई पाखा लगायो । 'मुनरो डक्ट्रिन' मा आधारित विदेश नीति अंगालेको संयुक्तराज्य अमेरिकाको उदय विश्व महाशक्तिको रुपमा भयो । दोश्रो विश्व युद्ध पश्चात अमेरिका र सोभियत संघ महाशक्तिका रुपमा स्थापित भए । यी दुई महाशक्तिबीच लामो समयसम्म चलेको शीतयुद्धले अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय सम्बन्ध तथा विश्व व्यबस्थालाई नयाँ आयाम दियो ।

सोभियत संघको पतनपछि संयुक्तराज्य अमेरिकाले आफूलाई 'चुनौतिरहित विश्व नेता' घोषणा गर्‍यो । एक ध्रुवीय बन्न पुगेको अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय सम्बन्धमा वाशिङ्गटनले आफ्नालागि संभाव्य चुनौतिको पहिचान गर्न थाल्यो । युरोप, अफ्रिका र दुबै अमेरिकी महादेशमा वाशिङ्गटनलाई सामरिक रुपमा चुनौति दिनसक्ने त्यसबेला कोही थिएन र आज पनि छैन । बदलिएको परिस्थिति अनुरुप, एशिया, खास गरी हिमालयन एशिया, वाशिङ्गटनका नीति निर्माताहरुको चासोको क्षेत्र बन्न पुग्यो । यस क्षेत्रमा रहेका उदियमान चीन र भारत भावि दिनमा अमेरिकाका लागि संभाव्य चुनौति बन्न सक्ने हिसाब पेण्टागनका रणनीतिकारहरुले दुई दशकअघि नै गरेका थिए ।

यही संभावनालाई ध्यानमा राखेर एक्काइशौ शताब्दीमा हाम्रो ध्यान एशिया, खास गरी हिन्द महासागर क्षेत्रमा, केन्द्रित हुनुपर्छ भनेर त्यही अनुरुपको नीति अपनाएका हुन्‍ अमेरिकीहरुले । सेप्टेम्बर ११, २००१ को घटनापछिका वर्षहरुमा अमेरिकाको यो नीति द्रुत गतिमा अघि बढाइयो । त्यसैको परिणाम हो, आज दक्षिण एशिया लगायत समग्र हिन्द महासागरीय क्षेत्रमा अमेरिकाको बढ्‍दो चासो तथा उपस्थिति । 'इण्डो पसिफिक' भन्ने नयाँ अवधारणा अघि सारेको अमेरिकाले यस क्षेत्रमा आफ्नो सैनिक उपस्थिति अझ बिस्तार गर्ने घोषणा विदेश मन्त्री हिलारी क्लिण्टनले हालै गरेकी छन्‍ । साउथ चाइना सी लगायत पसिफिकमा पेण्टागनले अपनाउने रणनीति कति आक्रामक हुनसक्छ भन्ने स्पष्ट संकेत अमेरिकी विदश मन्त्रीको नीतिगत्‍ लेखमा आइसकेको छ ।

बदलिँदो परिदृश्य
हिमालयन एशियाको सामरिक तथा रणनीतिक परिदृश्य फेरिँदैछ । पुराना सम्बन्धहरु भत्किँदैछन्‍ भने नयाँ सम्बन्धहरु विकशित हुँदैछन्‍ । एउटाको प्रभूत्व रहेको देश तथा क्षेत्रमा अर्काले प्रभाव बढाउँदै लगेको छ । अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय शक्ति समीकरणमा तीव्र गतिमा उदाउँदा एशियाली देश चीन र भारतबीच प्रतिष्पर्धा चलिराखेको छ, र यो प्रतिष्पर्धा आर्थिक पक्षमा मात्र भैराखेको छैन । नेपालका यी दुई ठूला छिमेकीले सामरिक क्षेत्रमा गरिराखेको गतिविधि सामान्य छैन, केही समय अघिको तुलनामा । असाधारण ढंगले गति लिइराखेको एशियाली प्रतिष्पर्धा जस्तो देखिने यो द्वन्द्वमा विश्व महाशक्ति संयुक्तराज्य अमेरिकाको भूमिका पनि महत्वपूर्ण र दरोसँग बढ्‍दै गएको देखिन्छ ।

बितेको आधा दशक हिमालयन एशियामा राजनीतिक, आर्थिक, सामाजिकका साथै सामरिक उथल पुथल भए, र यो अझै जारी छ । नेपालमा राजनीतिक परिवर्तन भैराखेको बेला हाम्रा दुई ठूला छिमेकी चीन र भारत अभूतपूर्व रुपमा सामरिक प्रतिष्पर्धा गर्दैछन्‍ र यो प्रतिष्पर्धाको दौड झन्‍ भन्दा झन्‍ तीव्र हुँदैछ ।

नेपालमा राजतन्त्र समाप्त पारी 'लोकतान्त्रिक गणतन्त्र' ल्याइयो तर यहाँ राजनीतिक स्थिरता आउनै बाँकी छ । विगत्‍ आधा दशकदेखि आन्तरिक रुपमा भैराखेको गतिविधि हेर्दा र बाहिरिया शक्तिको बढ्‍दो भूमिकाको पृष्ठभूमिमा नेपालले चाँडै स्थिरता पाउला भन्ने आशा गर्न सकिन्न । हिमालयन एशिया, हिन्द महासागर तथा पश्चिमी पसिफिकमा चलिराखेको शक्तिको होडबाजीले कस्तो प्रभाव पार्ने हो, र नेपालका भावि दिन कस्ता हुनेछन्‍ अहिले नै ठोकुवा गर्न गाह्रो छ ।

दक्षिण एशियाको उत्तर पट्टि रहेको चीन आर्थिक र सैनिक विकाससँगै आन्तरिक समस्याहरुले जेलिएको छ । तिब्बत र मुस्लिम बाहुल्य सिञ्जियान क्षेत्रमा समस्या जटिल बन्दै गएका छन्‍ भने चीन आफ्नो परम्परागत्‍ रणनीतिमा परिवर्तन गर्दैछ । ऊ बिस्तारै दक्षिण एशिया हुँदै समग्र 'मनसुन' (इण्डोनेशियाली आर्किपिलागो देखि दक्षिण एशिया हुँदै खाडीको यमनसम्मको क्षेत्र) क्षेत्रमा आफ्नो प्रभाव बिस्तार गर्न खोज्दैछ । अफ्रिकासम्म बढ्‍दै गएको बेइजिङ्गको उपस्थिति एशियामा अझ सशक्त बन्दैछ ।

दक्षिण एशियाको ठूलो देश भारत आर्थिक विकाससँगै आतङ्कवाद, पृथकतावाद लगायतका समस्यासँग जुझ्दैछ, र यी समस्या समयसँगै जटिलबाट जटिलतम्‍ बन्दै गएका छन्‍ । शीतयुद्धकालमा रणनीतिक गोटीको रुपमा प्रयोग भएको र खासगरी ९/११ को घटना पछि विश्व महाशक्ति संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिकाको 'विश्वासिलो साझेदार' रहेको पाकिस्तान नयाँ रणनीतिक साझेदारी निर्माणमा अघि बढेको छ । आन्तरिक रुपमा पहिल्यैदेखि रहेका समस्याहरु समाधान गर्न इस्लामावादका शासकहरु समर्थ भैराखेका छैनन्‍ । पाकिस्तानको एबोटाबादमा ओसामा बिन लादेनलाई अमेरिकाले स्वेच्छिक हिसाबले समाप्त पारेपछि विकसित घटनाक्रमले पाकिस्तानलाई वाशिङ्गटनबाट टाढा पार्दै लगेको छ ।

आतङ्ककारीहरुलाई सहयोग र संरक्षण दिएको आरोप अमेरिकाले पाकिस्तानमाथि लगाएको छ । 'स्वतन्त्र अनुसन्धानकर्ता' र सञ्चार माध्यम मार्फत हिजोआज सार्वजनिक भैराखेका आई. एस. आई. र तालिवान सम्बन्धी रिपोर्टहरुले पेण्टागनको भाषा बोल्दैछन्‍ । केही अघिसम्म 'विश्वासिलो मित्र' रहेको इस्लामावाद विरुद्ध आतङ्कवादलाई सघाएको आरोप अभियानकै रुपमा सञ्चालित देखिन्छ ।

वाशिङ्गटनको फेरिएको यो चालसँगै इस्लामाबादको स्वरका साथै रणनीति पनि बदलिँदै गएको छ । पहिलेको भन्दा ठूलो र कडा आबाजमा बोल्दै पाकिस्तानी राजनीतिक मात्र होइन, सैनिक नेतृत्व समेत 'चेतावनी' जारी गर्न थालेका छन्‍ । पाकिस्तानी सेना प्रमुखले हामी स्वतन्त्र राष्ट्र हौँ, र हामीमाथि गरिने कुनै पनि हस्तक्षेप सह्य हुनेछैन भने । 'हामीसँग अरु पनि विकल्प छन्‍' भन्ने स्पष्ट सन्देश दिँदै 'चीन हाम्रो हरेक परिस्थितिको मित्र' हो भन्न थालिएको छ, इस्लामावादमा । यही सन्दर्भमा पाकिस्तान र चीनको बढ्‍दो निकटता चिन्ताको विषय बन्न थालेको छ, दक्षिण एशियाका ठूला राजधानीहरुमा ।

चीनको आक्रामक रणनीति
'मुस्कान' तथा 'मौन' कूटनीति गर्ने चीन परम्परा त्यागेर आफ्नो स्वार्थ रक्षाका लागि आक्रामक बन्दै गएको छ । र बेइजिङ्गका शासकहरु 'सबक सिकाउने' भाषा बोल्न थालेका छन्‍,
हिजोआज । सन्
‍ १९६० को दशक पछि पहिलो पटक उत्तरतिरबाट यस्तो कडा कूटनीतिक भाषा
सुनिएको छ ।

भारतले 'लुक इष्ट' नीति अपनाउनु अघिदेखि नै चीन दक्षिण एशियाका भारत वरपरका देशहरुमा आफ्नो उपस्थिति वृद्धि गर्न व्यस्त छ । 'स्ट्रिङ्ग अफ पर्ल्स' नीति अन्तर्गत्‍ चीनले भारतलाई चारैतिरबाट घेरा हाल्दैछ भन्ने विश्लेषण भैराखेको छ, खास गरी भारतका प्रमुख 'थिङ्क ट्‍याङ्क' हरुबाट । पाकिस्तानको ग्वादर मात्र होइन, पाकिस्तान नियन्त्रित कश्मिर लगायतका क्षेत्रमा चीनियाँ उपस्थितिले नयाँ दिल्लीका नीति निर्माताहरुलाई झस्काएको छ ।

उत्तर–पूर्वी तथा पश्चिम–दक्षिणी पाकिस्तानमा सडक लगायतका पूर्वाधार निर्माणमा रहेको चीनियाँ नागरिकहरुको उपस्थितिलाई भारतीयहरुले चीनियाँ सेनाको पाकिस्तानमा उपस्थिति भन्ने आशंका गरेका छन्‍ । हालै चीन र पाकिस्तानका सेनाले गरेको संयुक्त युद्ध अभ्यासलाई समेत नयाँ दिल्लीमा 'भारत विरुद्ध चीनको आक्रामक रणनीति' भन्ने अर्थ लगाइएको छ । पाकिस्तानको पुरानो साझेदार अमेरिकासँग बढ्‍दो दूरी र चीनसँगको विकसित सामिप्यले आफूलाई खतरा बन्ने त होइन भन्ने चिन्ता दिल्लीमा बढ्‍दै गएको स्पष्ट देखिन्छ ।

यसैक्रममा पाकिस्तानमा आफ्नो सैनिक आधारशिविर राख्न चीनले इस्लामावादसँग आग्रह गरेको आधिकारिक पुष्टि नगरिएको समाचार सार्वजनिक भएको छ । यो समाचारले चीनले भारतविरुद्ध घेराबन्दी गर्दैछ भन्ने भारतको आशंकालाई थप बल पुर्‍याएको छ । अमेरिकाको विश्वासिलो साझेदारीको बाटो छाडेर पाकिस्तान चीनसँग सहकार्यमा जाने आशंका एकथरीले गरिराखेको बेला पाकिस्तानी भूमिमा चीनको सैनिक शिविर राख्ने प्रस्ताबले स्थिति अझ जटिल बनाउन सक्छ । स्मरणीय छ, आफ्नो भूमि बाहिर चीनले सैनिक आधारशिविर अहिलेसम्म राखेको छैन ।

झण्डै तीन दशक लामो पृथकतावादी हिँसा तह लगाउन सफल श्रीलङ्का हिन्द महासागरको शक्ति समीकरणमा एउटा महत्वपूर्ण तर फरक कित्ताको साझेदार बन्दै गएको संकेत देखिँदैछ । दक्षिणी श्रीलङ्काको हाम्बनटोटामा चीनियाँ सहयोगमा निर्मित बहुद्देशीय बन्दरगाह र चीनले यो टापू राष्ट्रमा अनेक रुपले बढाउँदै लगेको उपस्थितिलाई 'खतराको घण्टी' को रुपमा व्याख्या गरिँदैछ, खास गरी भारतीय 'थिङ्क ट्‍याङ्क' हरुबाट ।

स्थिति जटिल छ
नेपालमा चीनको 'चलखेल' व्यापक हुँदैछ भन्ने भारतीयहरुको आरोप रहँदै आएको छ । विगत्‍ केही वर्ष देखि चीनले नेपालसँगको सम्बन्धमा अपनाएको खुला र बिस्तारित व्यबहार, चीनियाँ नेता तथा पदाधिकारीहरुको बाक्लो नेपाल भ्रमण र नेपाली नेता र पदाधिकारीहरुको चीन भ्रमण आफैँमा यहाँ चीनको बढ्‍दो चासोका उदाहरण हुन्‍ । आफ्नो सुरक्षाप्रति चीन कति सचेत छ भन्ने कुरा बेइजिङ्गका तर्फबाट लगातार आइराखेका धारणाबाट स्पष्ट हुन्छ ।

उदाउँदो महाशक्ति चीन हिमालयन एशियामा आक्रामक रुपमा आफ्नो प्रभाव बिस्तार गर्दैछ । अमेरिकाले अघि सारेको र प्रवर्द्धन गरेको 'इण्डो पसिफिक' अवधारणा अनुरुप भारत उर्जाको नाममा साउथ चाइन सी प्रवेश गर्न खोज्दैछ, बेइजिङ्गको चेतावनीलाई बेवास्ता गर्दै । पाकिस्तान भारतलाईमात्र होइन, अमेरिकासमेतलाई चेतावनी दिने आँट गरिराखेको छ । म्यानमारदेखि श्रीलङ्का अनि पाकिस्तानदेखि नेपालसम्म चीन, भारत र अमेरिकाबीच प्रभूत्वको छद्म युद्ध शुरु मात्र भएको छैन, यो डरलाग्दो रुपमा बिस्तार हुँदै गएको छ ।

यो बहुपक्षीय रणनीतिक घम्साघम्सीको परिणति कस्तो हुनेछ भन्ने सटिक अनुमान अहिल्यै लगाउन गाह्रो छ । तर एउटा कुरा प्रष्ट छ, अहिले चलिराखेको यो बहुपक्षीय छद्म युद्ध 'सफ्ट पावर' को प्रक्षेपणमा मात्र सिमित रहने छैन, आउँदा दिनमा ।

गजुरेल त्रिभूवन विश्वविद्यालयका राजनीतिशास्त्री हुन्‍ ।

नयाँ पत्रिका दैनिकमा प्रकाशित, कात्तकि २२, २०६८ (नोभेम्बर ०८, २०११)

Nov 1, 2011

Externally guided politics

By Deepak Gajurel

Nepali political parties and forces have not been working for the cause of the nation and the people. External guidance in Nepal's domestic politics is the key factor behind current political mess.

Please click on the following link to listen or download an analysis on current political imbroglio. The radio talk show was broadcast live by Hamro FM, Chitwan on Kartik 15, 2068 (November 01, 2011)






Oct 29, 2011

Factors of political deadlock in Nepal

By Deepak Gajurel

Political deadlock in Nepal. What are the factors behind this deadlock? 

An analysis on these issues in a radio talk show broadcast by Hamro FM, Chitwan.

Please click on the following lick to listen or download the program in MP3.



PM's India visit and Nepal India relations


By Deepak Gajurel

What Prime Minister Bhattarai brought from his India vist? Why India ignored Nepali PM in diplomatic courtesy? On what mandate Bhattarai signed BIPPA Agreement?
An analysis on Bhattarai's India visit and Nepal India relations. Live radio talk show in Gorkha FM. 

Please click on the following link to listen or download the program in MP3.