Why now? Mysterious visit by Chinese defence minister

By Anil Athale

The low profile nature of the visit and media's virtual silence could well have been orchestrated by the Indian government. But the visit indeed ought to be taken seriously and an analysis of the possible motivations and likely discussions between the two sides is necessary as it can directly affect national security, says Colonel (retd) Anil Athale.

Even by the dismal Indian media standards, (where on television a boy being slapped in a Delhi school is 'breaking national news') the silence and absence of comment over the recent five-day visit (September 3-8) by the Chinese defence minister was an extraordinary occurrence.

The fact that General Liang Guanglie's visit was the first one after eight years and took place at the time of rising tensions in South China Sea, ought to have elicited comment in the national media. It seems that the visit was almost treated like a 'secret' visit! While the Indian media was silent, the officially controlled Chinese media gave it due prominence. True to the Chinese way of doing things, there was no joint statement or press conference at the end of the meeting.

The low profile nature of the visit and media's virtual silence could well have been orchestrated by the Indian government. But the visit indeed ought to be taken seriously and an analysis of the possible motivations and likely discussions between the two sides is necessary as it can directly affect national security.

The Chinese defence minister did not come directly to India but had a stopover in Colombo in Sri Lanka. This was the Chinese way to convey to Indians that they treat India as just one of the South Asian countries not meriting any special treatment. Earlier, the Chinese Vice President  Xi Jinping, widely regarded as successor to the current President Hu Jintao, did not visit India during his world tour. All this has been part of the Chinese policy of refusing to accept any kind of parity with India.

That the visiting Chinese minister skipped paying homage at the 'Amar Jawan Jyoti' was to be expected. But his giving a Rs 50,000 'tip' to the Indian Air force pilots who flew him from Mumbai to Delhi was extraordinary. If deliberate, then it was a calculated insult to the Indian Armed Forces. The possible explanation could be that the Chinese side possibly bungled up on carrying mementos and this was a spur of the moment improvisation. In either case it must have left a very bad taste for Indians. There were no expectations on a breakthrough on border dispute and the usual noises were made about military to military contacts etc.

History may offer some guidance to understanding the motives of the Chinese. In 1956, the then premier of China Chou En Lie visited India with a huge delegation. India honoured him by asking him to take a salute at the passing out parade at the National Defence Academy. The delegation was shown round ammunition factories, visited field units and my battalion actually gave an attack demonstration in Narayangarh field firing ranges near Ambala. When the Chinese attacked in 1962 my battalion faced them at the Namka Chu River. In retrospect it appears that the Chinese carefully assessed the Indian military potential and drew their own conclusions.

More information has now become available in the public domain regarding the motivation/circumstances of the Chinese attack in 1962. China was reeling under artificial famine due to the 'Great Leap Forward' policy of Mao. According to one estimate close to 13 million Chinese died in that famine. Mao's leadership was under threat. He found an easy scapegoat in militarily weak India. It seems that the crisis in China Sea over islands of Senkaku (and Beijing calls the Diaoyu) with Japan is reaching a flash point. This comes on the back of American declaration of making Asia-Pacific a 'pivot' of its naval power. China may well have come to New Delhi to assess Indian views on the crisis and warn India to adopt hands off approach.

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses researcher R S Kalha has quoted (IDSA Comment September 11, 2012) an interesting incident from the past. On May 16, 1959, the Chinese ambassador delivered a message that faced with US threats over Taiwan, China is not going to open a new front to the West. This message was in the context of the clashes that had taken place in Ladakh. Faced with a crisis situation in China Sea, the Chinese defence minister may well have sought Indian understanding and peace on the border.

The Chinese defence minister may well have also come to request the Indian government to play down the observance of 50th anniversary of the Sino-Indian border war. In this he must have found a sympathetic New Delhi since the present rulers who deify Jawaharlal Nehru would rather forget the 1962 war that showed Nehru in poor light. Chinese exasperation with Indian media is well known.

Chinese are shrewd observers of the Indian political scene. Indian Defence Minister A K Antony's cautious approach to alliance with the US is well known. The Chinese may well be signalling that India need not go into the US camp. This becomes a distinct possibility since post 2014 withdrawal from Afghanistan, the American and Indian interests are likely to be even more closely aligned.

This author had experienced the Chinese obsession with Indo-US ties first hand in Jan 2005. On a visit to Hong Kong/Macau and interaction with middle level Chinese functionaries, the constant refrain was to ask about Indo-US relations. Three years later, in July 2008, an American student working on her PhD in the top Chinese university (Tisnghua) landed in Pune to meet me. Again the topic of discussion was Indo-US military relations.

These personal anecdotes were mentioned only to drive home the point that even before the Indo-US nuclear deal, China was obsessed with Indo-US relations. Possibly it is because the Chinese leadership is well aware of the benefits they got being US allies since 1972. Now they fear India may well take their place. 

It seems that China may well soften its stand vis a vis India in return for India not going whole hog into the US camp. On the other hand the Indian prime minister has been reported to have commented that the Chinese aim is to keep India in a 'state of low equilibrium'. The PM seems to have summed up the Chinese approach brilliantly in one sentence. But the million dollar question is how does India get out of this 'low equilibrium' trap?

As an aside, it is time to lay to rest another mystery -- the 'Henderson Brooks Report'. It is true that this has still not been declassified. But this report was in the possession of this author and was used fully to write the official history of the war. This history is available on the internet. The only condition the ministry put was that the references to the report are omitted from the manuscript. In fact the official history has made full use of the Henderson Brooks report and much more in completing the task.

Colonel (retd) Anil Athale is former joint director, ministry of defence history division and co-author of the official history of 1962 Sino-Indian border conflict.

Courtesy: Rediffnews.com, September 17, 2012

http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-now-mysterious-visit-by-chinese-defence-minister/20120917.htm

India-China: Can the humiliation of 1962 repeat itself?

By B Raman

Can the history of our humiliation at the hands of China in 1962 repeat itself? Security expert B Raman wonders

As we approach the 50th anniversary of the humiliation next month, we have to analyse this question in depth in our governmental national security community as well as outside.

It is important for the National Security Council Secretariat to organise a series of brainstorming on this subject with the participation of experts on China from the government and outside.

The starting-point of such a brainstorming has to be a presumption that the present efforts to solve our border dispute with China through talks may not succeed and that we may be confronted with a fresh military confrontation in the future.

Should such a confrontation arise, are we better prepared to face it today than we were in 1962? If not, what are the deficiencies still existing and how to remove them?

It is important for us to objectively identify the factors that led to the 1962 humiliation and examine to what extent they have been removed. It is also important to foresee what kind of new factors not seen in 1962 could arise and what implications they could have for our capabilities.

It is my view that our ability to prevent another humiliation in future would depend upon our trans-Himalayan military strategy and capability as it did in 1962. The roles of the Army and the Air Force in such a strategy will be pre-eminent. The role of the Navy will be marginal.

It will be our trans-Himalayan strategic mindset and tactical thinking that will determine the future course of any new military confrontation with China as it did in 1962.

I would identify the following as the basic causes of our humiliation of 1962:

(a). Though our civilian and military intelligence agencies had a satisfactory capability for the collection of infrastructure intelligence from Tibet, their capability for the collection of war indicators from Tibet was very poor.

They detected in time the clandestine Chinese construction of roads such as the Aksai Chin road in the Western sector, but they missed the Chinese preparations for a military foray into our territory.

The Chinese attack on our positions must have been preceded by weeks, if not months, of preparations on the ground in Tibet. The war indicators caused by such preparations were missed by our intelligence agencies.

(b).Our capability for the analysis and assessment of China-related intelligence was inadequate. Even the limited intelligence flowing from Tibet from human and technical sources was not subjected to vigorous analysis and assessment.

Our knowledge and assessment of the Chinese military thinking and mindset were poor. We hardly knew anything about the India expertise in the PLA and the Chinese intelligence.

As a result, we seriously underestimated the Chinese political and military will to assert their ground interests across the Himalayas and over-assessed and over-projected our capability to anticipate and neutralise any Chinese assertion of their will.

(c). Inadequate professionalism in our armed forces and their inability to foresee different scenarios that could arise and identify the available options. This lack of professionalism was seen right across the board --from the failure to procure the military stores that would be required for a trans-Himalayan war to readapting the training of our officers.

The army went into war with very little training and experience in mountain warfare and with very few equipment for such a warfare.

(d). The inexperience of our political leadership in military-related decision-making and in enforcing the implementation of the decisions taken.

My assessment of the present position regarding these factors is as follows:

(a).Our intelligence collection capability in Tibet has improved. Our intelligence agencies are unlikely to miss war indicators in Tibet as badly as they did in 1962.

(b). Our analysis and assessment capability has improved over what it was in 1962, but continues to be inadequate. The Chinese language capability of our national security community is worse than what it was in 1962 and in the years immediately thereafter. Our ability to understand and analyse the Chinese military mind-set and thinking continues to be poor.

Whatever capability we have built up in this regard has been largely influenced by Western thinking and analysis without an independent application of our mind.

Our analysis and assessment infrastructure in respect of China-related intelligence lags behind our analysis and assessment infrastructure in respect of Pakistan-related intelligence.

We can anticipate, analyse and counter Pakistan better than we can China. There are wild swings in our assessments on China --from alarmism on the one side to total complacency on the other.

(c).The professionalism of our Armed Forces has improved. They are better equipped, better trained and better led for a trans-Himalayan warfare today. But, there is a lack of convergence of thinking between the Army and the Air Force on the one side and the Navy on the other as to what China implies for our national security and armed forces.

There is inadequate integrated joint staff thinking in the armed forces as a whole on China. There is a newly-acquired fascination for naval power and an inadequate appreciation of the continuing importance of military (army related) and air power.

(d). The understanding of our political class in matters relating to strategic decision-making on China is inadequate though it is better than what it was in 1962 and the years before.

There is a clear understanding in our political class of China as a political and economic competitor, but inadequate comprehension of China as a military factor.

Two new factors that have made their appearance since 1962 have not received adequate attention in our national security community:

(a). The Chinese search for alternate means of taking India by surprise. In 1962, they took us by surprise because our intelligence agencies had little capability for collecting war indictors from the ground in Tibet. The Chinese no longer enjoy this advantage.

The increasing Chinese emphasis on the role of the helicopter-borne operations of their Army has to be seen in the context of their search for new means of taking India by surprise -- particularly in Arunachal Pradesh.

The equipping and training of the copter wing of their Army is receiving increasing attention with some major exercises already noticed.

(b). The Chinese testing and fine-tuning of integrated techniques of an Army-Air Force role in defending Tibet from external threats and in asserting their will trans Himalayas. There has been an increase in the number of Air Force exercises in Tibet.

Not adequate knowledge of Chinese Air Force exercises in Yunnan is available, but my surmise is that in any future military confrontation with India, the Chinese will use their Air Force defensively from Tibet and offensively from Yunnan.

In 1962, the entire North Myanmar was a political, administrative and military vacuum. The Myanmar government presence has since improved in the Rakhine (old Arakan) and Chin areas bordering Bangladesh, but remains the same in the Kachin State bordering Yunnan.

The Kachin State and Yunnan are very important in any trans-Himalayan military strategy. We continue to neglect these two important regions from the point of view of our intelligence coverage as we were doing before 1962.

The Kachin State is important for defending our North East in any new confrontation with China. The Rakhine State is important for our Indian Ocean objectives and our energy security.

I do not consider it necessary to touch upon the nuclear aspect in this analysis. It has to be discussed in camera.

Courtesy: Rediffnews.com, September 17, 2012

http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-india-china-can-the-humiliation-of-1962-repeat-itself/20120917.htm

US soldiers on the ground in Nepal

By Arun Shrivastava

Early this week, sixty-five American soldiers landed in Kathmandu and moved to Dhikurpokhari of Kaski district of Nepal. They are also travelling in Manang and Mustang districts bordering China’s Tibet region. Israelis hold the highest Passover Seder festival each year on 9 April in Manang! Ostensibly the soldiers are on a “humanitarian mission” of assessing the quality of healthcare services available to the local people. They have been meeting health workers and holding talks with NGOs working in these parts. This job could have been better accomplished by a team of public health experts in civilian dress.  

In reality, it looks like an advance reconnaissance party to evaluate the nature of the local terrain and assess possible local cooperation to overcome logistical bottlenecks in the event of Nepal’s occupation. Nepalese Army’s Lt. Gen. Nepal Bhushan Chand is coordinating with American soldiers; again the coordination could have been better with local public health experts who are more knowledgeable in these matters. Effectively, this ‘humanitarian mission’ appears to be strictly an army matter and it stinks.

US soldiers have never ever entered a sovereign country on humanitarian mission anywhere in the world, except in a limited way during the Second World War and that too in Europe. In every third world country, US Government’s ‘humanitarian mission’ has been a cover to eliminate popular leaders and/or incite civil wars.

Since there is no leader in Nepal either popular or opposed to Western domination or both, that can’t be a reason for the humanitarian mission of US soldiers. On the other hand, the undercurrent of simmering ethnic strife stoked by well funded INGOs and NGOs, USAID, FORD Foundation, Asia Foundation, George Soros’ Human Rights groups and the UN Framework Team could be used as an opportunity to grab strategic territory close to China. The construction of a lily pad in Gorkha district, of no use to the local civilian population, is a strong indication that the US Government is planning an extremely risky surgery in the Himalayan heart.

Nepalese NGOs, people and politicians should note that Russia has expelled USAID for their nefarious activities, including interference in Russia’s electoral process. [1]

Intelligence reports from North Korea confirm that US boots are also on ground there, with the connivance of Kim Jong-un’s sister and brother-in-law who want North Korea to become another star in the spangled banner. Equaling or surpassing the Korean pecuniary motives are the over ambitious India-educated Prime Minister Bhattarai and his cohort, well known to the Nepalese people. A leading Kathmandu daily, responding to Bhattarai’s helpless ‘power is not in my hand’, aptly asked “So, where is the power centre?” Valid question. Since Bhattarai doesn’t know where his power stems from, who allowed US soldiers on Nepalese soil is a moot question. If the Prime Minister approved it, then Nepal has a huge problem as it amounts to surrender of national sovereignty.  

State of Nepal’s political institutions and politicians

At this juncture, Nepal is governed under the 2007 Interim Constitution; the mandated tenure of the Constituent Assembly [CA] expired on 27 May 2012. The mandate to the Prime Minister stands on pretty shaky ground, yet, he somehow managed to represent Nepal in the recently concluded Non-Aligned Movement [NAM] summit in Teheran. He was accompanied by twenty persons without the people’s mandate. During preparations in Kathmandu, the ambassadors of Israel, US and UK made several visits to the Foreign Ministry to dissuade the troupe not to go to Teheran because ‘it’d send a wrong signal that Nepal supports a terrorist state.’ Did any senior leader give a press statement that Iran is not a terrorist state? I can’t recall even one senior politician stating that Nepal is a sovereign state and at full liberty to enter into any relationship with any country, including Iran. [2]

On the contrary, while leaders have been asserting that Nepal is a buffer state between China and India, during the past two decades these very politicians, willingly or unwillingly, have allowed infamous international institutions with a known history of covertly engineering civil wars in third world countries, to expand their activities in Nepal, which threaten peace and stability in border areas of China and India. Worse, the situation they have created will make life miserable for the Nepalese people and for the ethnic minorities in some of the most sensitive regions.

Learning from history

After the untimely demise of King Mahendra Bir Bikram Shahdev in 1972, not one Nepali leader, including the well meaning late King Birendra, has shown the perspicacity of steadfastly remaining neutral in regional power politics panning out now under the Project for the New American Century [PNAC]. If King Birendra had his father’s insight into the subtle manipulations of the western powers, he would not have allowed Kathmandu to become the south Asian operational base of fifth columnist INGOs and NGO and all the Trojan horses of rogue international developmental agencies. It was King Mahendra who had a consistent policy of keeping Nepal as a buffer state between China and India, leaning towards China, and keeping western powers’ illicit and perverted designs at bay.

Recall that the moment King Mahendra found out that the then Prime Minister B.P. Koirala had secured arms from Israel to overthrow the monarchy, he ordered his arrest and imprisoned him for treason. His advisors were astute analysts and nationalists. They knew how the British and CIA had engineered the murder of democracy and the violent overthrow of Mossadeq of Iran in 1953 to install a brutal despot, the ‘Shah’ as King of Iran. They also knew that Americans had a hand in democratically elected Pakistani Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan’s assassination to install a military dictator five years later [Ayub Khan] as an agent of chaos in south and west Asia. Throughout the 1950s and 60s, one after another, democratically elected popular leaders were removed or murdered by the same western powers whose soldiers are on ground in Nepal today. The current Nepali leadership is complicit in defiling God’s own divine soil.

Delve into the history of Indonesia where popular leader Sukarno was removed and a brutal dictatorship of Suharto installed. Both USAID and FORD Foundation played pernicious roles and Mrs. Ann Dunham Soetoro (mother of US President Barak Hussain Obama whose real name is Barry Soetoro and has travelled to south Asia [Pakistan] on an Indonesian passport with his mother) worked as an anthropologist for the CIA and handed over a complete list of every ethnic group that had even remotest communist leaning. Ann Dunham, according to Wayne Madsen’s sources, was perhaps responsible for a quarter million to one million Indonesians slaughtered by Suharto in league with the CIA. [3]

Complete list of every ethnic group in Nepal by number of households, population, residence, social structure, economic activity, and religious and political affiliations are known to CIA, MI6, and MOSSAD. That list was prepared by the Christian Church under Joshua Project and that list is in the public domain. Similar lists have been prepared for Burma, northeastern region of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Scientific Committee of the Vatican, despite opposition of many Archbishops, approved the use of Genetically Engineered Seeds on 17 May 2009, and USAID and MONSANTO have already announced in league with stupid Nepalese Agricultural scientists to promote GM seeds; this will decimate Nepalese population within two generations. [4] Contrary to media reports, the US and NATO forces are unlikely to leave Afghanistan and the US will further intensify Drone attacks on Pakistani people. 

Nepalese people should further note that Islamic Relief Worldwide [IRW] working in Nepal is under heavy scanner in India for funding Islamic terrorist activities in south Asia. There are hard evidences that the European Community headquartered in Brussels directly funds their activities in south Asia controlled from Dacca. [5] This organization also gets Wahhabi funds from Saudi Arabia whose rulers are closely allied with the Israeli Government. This network coordinates with the Chabad Lubavitchers and Tibetan refugee centres in Kathmandu and funds hard drug production and distribution via Nepal, which Nepalese authorities can’t control. [6]   

Nepalese people should watch every move of foreign agencies and that of their politicians carefully. They can’t be trusted exactly as the leaders thousand mile west-south of Kathmandu can’t be trusted by 1.2 billion Indians. Sitting silently in the hope that the current crop of leaders or the ethnic federalists NGOs will provide them with stable and democratic Government is tantamount to national suicide. Trusting European and American institutions to help them would be even more foolish.  

Endnotes:

[1] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-20/russia-expels-usaid/4271094

Majority of third world citizens don’t realize that USAID is a division of the US-Department of Defense and serves the expansionary imperialist agenda of the US Government and their cohorts in West Europe, especially UK.  

[2] I don’t have access to all the Nepali dailies. If any leader has responded to the three ambassadors’ interference in Nepal’s sovereign right to decide its foreign policy, then I apologize and stand corrected.

[3] Wayne Madsen; “The Manufacturing of a President”-How the CIA ‘inserted’ Barak Hussain Obama into the White House; Lulu Publication; 2012

Wayne Madsen is a former US Naval intelligence officer and well known investigative journalist. He has extensive intelligence network in Asia and the canny ability to accurately predict events by connecting the dots.

[4]   Weaponization of the food system-Genetically engineered maize threatens Nepal and the Himalayan region; Centre for Research on Globalization; 2012.

The article can be accessed here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/weaponization-of-the-food-system-genetically-engineered-maize-threatens-nepal-and-the-himalayan-region/

A recent French study shows that rats fed GM foods develop cancers and vital organ failure. If Nepal’s agricultural scientists, with dollars rammed down their throats, think Nepalese people are laboratory rats and they can live with this scenario, then I have no further comments, except that Nepal will be completely depopulated in two generations and that will affect China and India and the entire Himalayan region too. Nepal’s Agricultural scientists can amass wealth but they have no right to kill people in three countries because of their stupidity. 

[5] Islamic Relief Worldwide is registered in Birmingham, UK. They are the conduit of European Community funding of social chaos and terrorism in south Asia. India’s Home Ministry has extensive documents tracking their nefarious activities. Nepal should ban their activities but, unfortunately, Nepal does not have a leader who has the anatomical feature called a spine.

[6] Political Crisis in Nepal; Centre for Research on Globalization; 2012

The article can be accessed here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/weaponization-of-the-food-system-genetically-engineered-maize-threatens-nepal-and-the-himalayan-region/

Arun Shrivastava is an accredited management consultant and highly experienced researcher and writer. Since 9/11, he has devoted much time to researching New World Order issues. He is South Asia correspondent of Salem-News of Oregon, USA and a regular contributor to Global Research. His email is: arun1951@gmail.com 

Courtesy: Vijayvaani.com, 24 Sep 2012

http://www.vijayvaani.com/FrmPublicDisplayArticle.aspx?id=2474

Nepal's democracy at risk: political analysts fear

Xinhua, in Global Times

Political analysts expressed serious concern on Saturday that Nepal's short multiparty democratic history is at risk after the political parties failed to draft a new constitution and complete peace process in time.

They voiced concern when the world is marking the International Day of Democracy on September 15 as declared by the United Nations General Assembly in 2007.

The theme for 2012 international day of democracy is Dialogue and Inclusiveness.

Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a democratic activist, said that political leaders are pressing democracy on the verge of crisis after they put power at the center of politics.

"It is now high time to write a new constitution and complete a peace process as the country is moving towards long transition period and deepening political turmoil," said Tuladhar who had participated in People's Uprising-II in Nepal in 2006 which had abolished monarchy after 21-day people's movement.

Political leaders' focus on how to rule the government and desire to remain in power has led to the dissolution of the Constituent Assembly (CA) on May 27 without giving a new constitution to the country, said Tuladhar.

Recalling the ongoing political unrest in Syria, Libya and Egypt, Tuladhar said the demand for democracy, equal participation, inclusiveness and right to freedom is the essential need of the 21st century, if not possible public of the concerned countries have now started demonstration and violence for democracy.

Despite difference among the political parties, there is still a ray of hope that our political parties will come together in common meeting point and unite to bring the country from uncertainty, Tuladhar said.

Muma Ram Khanal, a communist political analyst, said all communist leaders who have been portraying themselves as promoter of democratic system should currently forget their inter-party rift and focus on constitution writing.

International communities, especially neighboring China and India, are keenly looking at Nepal's latest political upheaval, so political parties should dare to show their statesmanship for safeguarding integrity and sovereignty of Nepal, Khanal suggested.

"As long as we went on giving room to say something to the international communities, Nepal is sure to face and witness direct and indirect political invasion from international front," Khanal warned.

Khanal said that dialogue and inclusive participation upheld by 2012 theme for international day of democracy could only help out in preservation of Nepal's democratic and multiparty system.

Daman Nath Dhungana, an independent political analyst, criticized that Nepal is currently being run by a caretaker government as all achievement gained after the election of CA in 2006 had collapsed with dissolution of CA on May 27.

The state is currently faced with constitutional vacuum which has posed threat to democracy and increased possibility of a rise of new political force which could or could not respect norms of democracy, Dhungana said.

Courtesy: Global Times, September 15, 2012

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/733280.shtml

Chinese fighter jets manoeuvre close to Indian border

By Saibal Dasgupta, TNN

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Chinese-fighter-jets-manoeuvre-close-to-Indian-border/articleshow/16403480.cms?

Nepal: We the nonsense people

Nepal: We the nonsense people

Nepal: Federalism in Trap?

Nepal: Federalism in Trap?

By Dr. Chandra Mani Adhikari

Chairman, Citizen Investment trust of Nepal / NAREC Nepal

शान्ति सुव्यवस्थाका लागि मानवीय सुरक्षा

रतीन्द्र खत्री

बृहत् शान्ति सम्झौता गरेर शान्ति प्रक्रियामा अग्रसर नेपालले कहिलेसम्म संक्रमणकालबाट गुज्रिनुपर्ने हो भन्ने कुनै टुंगो छैन । समस्या समाधान भएर शान्ति सुव्यवस्था कायम होला भन्नुभन्दा पनि समस्या झन्–झनै जटिल हुँदै जानुलाई शुभ लक्षणको रूपमा लिन सकिँदैन । एक आपसमा गाली गलोज अनि दोषारोपण गरेर मात्र समस्या समधान हुन सक्दैन । नेपालको मानवीय सुरक्षासँग जोडिएका तमाम विषय यति जटिल हुँदै गएको छ कि सही तरिकाले समयमै सम्बोधन हुन सकेन भने मुलुक असफल राष्ट्रमा परिणत हुने खतरा बढ्न थालेको छ । आमजनतामा के भ्रम देखिन्छ भने यसो वा त्यसो गरेर संविधान जारी भयो भने सबै समस्या समाधान भई हाल्छ । तर, संविधान जारी हँुदैमा समस्या समाधान हुन्छ भन्न सकिँदैन । एक किसिमले भन्दा अहिलेकै परिस्थितिमा संविधान जारी भयो भने झनै समस्या चर्केर जाने खतरा बढेर गएको छ । तसर्थ, सुजबुझका साथ गम्भीर भएर देशको समस्या समाधान हुन जरुरी देखिन आएको छ । आजको युगमा मानवीय सुरक्षा एउटा गम्भीर विषयका रूपमा देखापरेको छ । आमहालतमा प्रहरी, प्रशासन तथा सेनाको भरमा शान्ति सुरक्षा कायम भई हाल्छ भन्ने विचारले जरो गाडेको हुन्छ । वास्तवमा त्यो त मानवीय सुरक्षाको एउटा पाटो मात्र हो । मानवीय सुरक्षालाई बृहत्तर ढंगबाट हेर्दा विभिन्न पक्षहरूले प्रभाव पारेको हुन्छ । ती पक्षहरू एक आपसमा गाँसिएका पनि हुन्छन् । त्यसलाई विचार पु¥याएको अवस्थामा मात्र शान्तिको प्रत्याभूति हुन सक्ने वातावरण बन्छ ।

ती सबै पक्षहरूलाई नेपालको परिप्रेक्ष्यमा हेर्ने हो भने सबैजसो पक्षहरू नाजुक हालतमै भएको पाउँछांै । त्यस अवस्थामा कसरी शान्ति सम्भव होला भन्ने कुरा आफैंमा एउटा प्रश्नको रूपमा देखापरेको छ । मानवीय सुरक्षको पहिलो पक्ष भनेको आर्थिक सुरक्षा हो । नेपालको गरिबी तथा बेरोजगारीको समस्यालाई दृष्टिगत गर्ने हो भने यसको चित्र नाजुक हालतमा भएको स्पष्ट हुन्छ । बहुसंख्यक जनता निरपेक्ष गरिबीको रेखामुनि रहेको अवस्थामा कसरी आर्थिक सुरक्षाको स्थिति बलियो हुन सक्ला ? देशको अपार युवा जनशक्ति विदेश पलायन हुन परेको अवस्थामा देशको अर्थिक स्थिति कसरी बलियो हुन सक्छ ? विडम्बना त्यही बिदेसिएका जनशक्तिको रेमिट्यान्सले नै देशको अर्थतन्त्र धानिरहेको छ । यसले पनि आर्थिक अवस्था कति नाजुक हालतमा गुज्रिरहेको छ भन्ने कुरा स्वतः सिद्ध हुन्छ । ठूलो संख्यामा बेरोजगार जनशक्ति विदेशमा अल्मलिएको छ, यदि सो पनि नभई दिएको भए त्यो जनशक्ति बरोजगारीकै हालतमा अहिल्यकै अवस्थामा स्वदेशमा रहने हो भने अवस्था के हुने थियो होला ? सो जनशक्तिको दुरुपयोग हुन सक्ने प्रबल सम्भावना आफ्नै ठाउँमा छ । जसको प्रत्यक्ष असर मुलुकको शान्ति सुरक्षामा नै पर्ने निश्चित थियो । नेपालमा विभिन्न किसिमका राजनीतिक अभ्यास भए पनि आर्थिक विकासलाई जोड दिएर कुनै पनि सफल कार्यक्रम आउन नसक्नु नै आर्थिक सुरक्षाको स्थिति नाजुक हुनुको कारक तŒव हो भनेर भन्दा अत्युक्ति हुँदैन । खाद्य सुरक्षा मानवीय सुरक्षाको अर्को महŒवपूर्ण पक्ष हो । देशमा उत्पादित खाद्यान्नले आवश्यकता पूरा गर्न नसक्ने अवस्था र मुलुकको कतिपय स्थानमा हुने खाद्यान्न अभाव तथा अनिकाल पर्ने स्थिति अहिले पनि रहिरहनुले सुरक्षा चुनौती बढाइरहेको छ । यसलाई निराकरण गर्न ठोस कदम चालिएको कतै देखिँदैन । मुलुकमा अद्यापि कुपोषण, अस्वस्थ खाद्य पदार्थहरूको प्रयोग र विभिन्न किसिमका स्वस्थ्य समस्याले समग्र जनताको स्वास्थ्यमा आँच पु¥याइरहेको छ । विश्वमा हेर्ने हो भने जहाँ भोक र रोगग्रस्त छ, त्यहीँ नै विभिन्न समस्या भइरहेको देखिन्छ । तसर्थ, यस विषयलाई महŒवसाथ दिएकै हुनुपर्छ । तर, यसविपरीत नेपालको परिपे्रक्ष्यमा हेर्दा अझै पनि यससम्बन्धी समस्या ज्यूँका त्यूँ रहेको हामीले पाउँछौं । औषधि उपचारमा भएको व्यावसायिकीकरणले आम व्यक्तिलाई उपचार खर्च धान्ने मुस्किल पर्ने अवस्था आइसकेको छ । यस विषयमा समयमा नै केही नगर्ने हो भने यो समस्या अझै बढ्दै जाने बलियो सम्भावना देखिएको छ । मानवीय सुरक्षाको अर्को पक्ष वातावरणीय समस्या हो ।

विश्वमा देखापरेको जलवायु परिवर्तनको असर नेपालमा पनि देखा परिसकेको छ । जुन विषयलाई अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय पक्षले चुनौतीको रूपमा औल्याएका पनि छन् । तर, हामीले यसबारे ठोस कुनै कदम चाल्न सकेका छैनौं । त्यसको ठीकविपरीत राजनीतिक अस्थिरताको फाइदा उठाएर वन विनाश तथा प्रकृतिक सम्पदाहरूको विनाश गर्ने कामलाई बढावा दिइरहेका छौं । यही क्रम बढ्दै जाने हो भने भने भविष्यमा समस्या विकराल भएर थेग्नै नसक्ने अवस्था आउने बलियो सम्भावना देखापरेको छ । यस अतिरक्ति नेपाल प्रकृतिक प्रकोपको दृष्टिकोणले पनि अग्रपंक्तिमा रहेको विशेषज्ञहरूको भनाइ रहेको छ । प्राकृतिक प्रकोपको असर हामी जस्तै मुलुकहरूमा नै बढी भएको उदाहरण प्रशस्त छन् । राजनीतिक द्वन्द्वबाट गुज्रिरहेको अवस्थामा प्रकृतिक विपत् सामना गर्न प¥यो भने क्षति आपेक्षाकृत बढी हुन जाने कुराको पाठ क्यारबियन राष्ट्र हैटीबाट लिन सके मात्र पनि हामीले केही हदसम्म यस सुरक्षा चुनौतीको असर कम गराउन सक्ने अवस्थ रहन्थ्यो । व्यक्तिगत सुरक्षा मानवीय सुरक्षाको एउटा महŒवपूर्ण पक्ष हो । मुलुकमा विगत केही दशकदेखि बढ्दै गएको हिंसात्मक गतिविधिले व्यक्तिहरूको सुरक्षामा ठूलो प्रभाव पारेको छ । हत्या, हिंसा, बलात्कार, अपहरणजस्ता घटना बढ्दै जानुले सुरक्षा स्थितिलाई चिन्ताजनक बनाउँदै लगेको छ । यसको प्रमुख कारण राजनीतिक संरक्षकत्वमा हुने आपराधिक क्रियाकलापलाई लिन सकिन्छ । मुलुकमा दण्डहीनता बढ्नुका पछाडि पनि यही कारणले महŒवपूर्ण भूमिका खेलेको देखिन्छ । यसलाई निरुत्साहित पार्ने प्रयास खासै भएको देखिन्न । त्यस अवस्थामा शान्तिको परिकल्पना कसरी गर्न सकिन्छ ? जब अपराध र अपराधीसमक्ष प्रहरी प्रशासन लाचार बन्नुपर्ने अवस्था आउँछ तब शान्ति सुव्यवस्था स्वतः ओझेलमा पर्न जान्छ ।

मानवीय सुरक्षाको एउटा पक्ष जुन वर्तमान नेपालको सन्दर्भमा ज्यादै नै महŒवपूर्ण पक्षको रूपमा देखापरेको छ, त्यो हो समुदायको सुरक्षा । नेपालले बहुजाति, बहुसंस्कृति, बहुभाषा भएको धनी मुलुकको रूपमा परिचय बनाउँदै आएको थियोे । हिन्दू राज्य हुँदा पनि धार्मिक सहिष्णुताको अनुपम उदाहरणको रूपमा रहिआएको मुलुक थियो, नेपाल । तर, अहिले आएर कानुनी रूपमा नै यी सबै विषयमा समानताको प्रत्याभूति गरिएको भने पनि पछि एकाएक यस विषय किन जटिल बन्दै गयो भन्ने कुरा चासोको विषय बन्न गएको छ । सामाजिक सहिष्णुताको लागि आपसी ऐक्यबद्धता कुनै पनि मुलुकका लागि अति आवश्यकीय विषय हो । यसमा खलल पुग्यो भने नतिजा अत्यन्तै प्रत्युत्पादक हुनुको साथै विकराल समस्याको कारकतŒव बन्न जाने कुरालाई सबैले बुझ्न जरुरी छ । यस विषयमा सामाजिक समुदायको प्रतिनिधित्व गर्ने अगुवाहरूले त संवेदनशील हुनु नै पर्दछ । त्योभन्दा पनि बढी राजनीतिक नेतृत्वले अझै गम्भीर हुन अत्यन्तै जरुरी छ । आफ्नो क्षणिक राजनीतिक स्वार्थलाई त्यागेर मुलुकको बृहत्तर स्वार्थमा लाग्ने राजनीतिक नेतृत्वको कमी भएर पनि यो समस्या बढ्न गएको हो । हाल मुलुकमा मानवीय सुरक्षाको प्रत्याभूति हुन नसक्नुमा राजनीतिक सुरक्षाले प्रमुख स्थान ओगटेको छ । राजनीतिक अस्थिरता रहुन्जेल कुनै पनि समस्या समाधान हुन गाह्रो पर्छ । राजनीतिक समस्या भन्नाले आन्तरिक रूपमा राजनीतिक नै हुन्छ भने बाह्य रूपमा कूटनीतिक सुरक्षा पनि यसैको दायराभित्र पर्न आउँछ । जब राजनीतिक सुरक्षा आन्तरिक रूपमा कमजोर हुन्छ, तब बाह्य पक्षहरूको स्वार्थ पनि संगसंगै बढ्न थाल्छ । खासगरी हामी जस्तो विशाल छिमेकीहरूका बीचमा चेपुवामा परेको मुलुकले यस विषयलाई बडो संवेदनशील ढंगले  हेर्न जरुरी हुन्छ ।

राजनीतिमा विचारको द्वन्द्व हुनु कुनै अस्वाभाविक कुरा होइन तर त्यसको निष्कर्ष जहिले पनि सकारात्मक हुनुपर्छ तब मात्र त्यो प्रजातान्त्रिक कदम कहलाउन सक्छ । आजको युगमा अधिनायकवादी नेतृत्वविरुद्ध प्रजातान्त्रिक नेतृत्वको कुरा गरिन्छ । तर, प्रजातान्त्रिक खोल ओडेर अधिनायकवादी कदम कसैले उठाउँछ भने त्यो बढी प्रत्युत्पादक हुनेमा दुई मत हुन सक्दैन । सायद मुलुक आजको अवस्थामा आउनुमा यो पनि एउटा कारण हो भनेर भन्दा फरक नपर्ला । अन्तमा, एक पटक हामीले नेपालको परिप्रेक्ष्यमा यी मानवीय सुरक्षाका विविध पक्षलाई दाँजेर हे¥यौं भने सबै पक्षहरू कमजोर भएको पाउँछौं । कमजोर सुरक्षा स्थितिमा दिगो शान्ति कसरी सम्भव होला त ? हुन त यी सबै पक्षहरू अविकसित मुलुकको विशेषताझैं देखापरेको छ । बुद्धिमानीहरूले यसबाट पार पाउन भरसक कोसिस गरेर समृद्धिको बाटोमा लागेका छन् भने अविवेकशीलले हठ र अहंकारमा रुमलिँदै जनता, समग्र मुलुकको साथै आफू स्वयंलाई समेत डुबाएका छन् ।

(लेखक नेपाली सेनाका पूर्व महासेनानी हुन् ।)

साभार : राजधानी दैनिक