Dec 23, 2011

If Kashmiri separatists hold anti-Indian demonstrations in Nepal?

5 Questions, Telegraph Nepal

The asked some Nepali brains on the possible reason for the cancellation of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to Nepal. Most of the experts took the matter as a calculated move of the Nepal Government to abort the visit. Below the response:

A failure of Nepali diplomacy
Professor Anand Srestha, (T. U Retd)

TGQ1: How do you look Professor at the last minute cancellation of Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao Nepal visit? What may have been the reasons?
Anand Shrestha: As I see to it, the latest news about the postponement of the Chinese PM to Nepal could be for several reasons.

It could be for reasons of security, it could be a failure of Nepali diplomacy or it could be the disclosure of the Premier’s visit and the agenda associated with it being prematurely disclosed by the Nepalese government.

But looking at the recent political developments in the country, there could be another angle to the Chinese PM’s visit. The recent infighting within the Maoists party and with Gajurel’s latest statement that the Maoists party is on the verge of splitting and that only a formal announcement has to be made on the issue had sent shock waves among those that thought that the Maoists party wouldn’t split at any cost.

That the Baidya faction had taken up a strong stance against Prachanda and Baburam grouping had been aired over the media on several occasions. But the latest Baidya statement that he was not aware about Gajurel’s statement and that he did not know when and where he spoke on the matter as also made political thinkers and analysts wonder why such diverse statements have come from the Maoists hardliners.

In this case, Baidya statement that did a complete about turn from his previous statement comes as quite a shock. He suddenly talks of reconciliation and unity among the Maoist party. Does this statement of Baidya coming immediately as it does after the postponement of the Chinese PM’s visit have anything to do with the infighting within the Maoists party?

Has Baidya been indicated by the Chinese side that they are not happy with the disunity in the Maoists party?
Is this why the visit of the Premier has been postponed?

Is this why suddenly Baidya changed his previous hardline stance? 


Chinese PM pulled his visit because of wobbling Nepal Government

Narayan Manandhar, Governance expert

TGQ2: Why Chinese PM postponed his Nepal visit at the last minute?
N. Manandhar: To recall, about a week back, a seminar was held at Hotel Yak & Yeti wherein some Indian scholars, including S. D. Muni, had participated which was reported by the Telegraph Nepal.

Many observers in Kathmandu believe that the Indian scholars and some diplomats had come to Kathmandu in order to damage the very prospects of Chinese Prime Minister Nepal visit.

I personally believe that due to the weak position of Dr. Bhattarai’s wobbling government, the Chinese Prime Minister must have pulled his visit.

In addition to that, some diplomatic lapses, for example, the declaration of the dates of the visit and the agenda to be discussed during the negotiation issues at time of the visit, BIPPA and so many other aspects of the high level visit were disclosed in advance without having proper consultations with the Chinese authorities.

I don’t believe that the visit was simply cancelled on security grounds as is being given to understand.

May be the government in Nepal is counting its last breath.


Nepal’s lack of diplomatic sensitivity may have postponed Wen’s visit

Professor P. Kharel, Senior Journalist, President-Nepal Press Institute

TGQ3: Why the Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao postponed his Nepal visit?
Prof. Kharel: Lack of diplomatic sensitivity on the part of the government of Nepal is the primary reason for the unusual last minute postponement of the Chinese Prime Minister.

The schedule of the visit, agendas and the likes are made public only in coordination and proper consultation of both the countries. Otherwise, background information is made available to the media only after a visit, especially when key issues are concerned so as not to rob a visit off any surprise or pleasant element.

In the case of Chinese Premiers’ visit, the Nepal government briefed the media prematurely. Secondly, Beijing is calculating the best time for such a high level visit at a time when the Nepali media and public speculation mill are speaking of a sweeping change in the government. This is a factor Beijing is weighing closely.


Nepal PM Bhattarai’s undiplomatic acts favored Indian regime

Professor Surendra K. C, History Department, T.U

TGQ4: Why Chinese Prime Minister preferred not to visit Nepal?
Prof. K. C: Firstly, the activities of Nepal Prime Minister Bhattarai were becoming loaded with suspense. What became abundantly clear is that Nepal PM Bhattarai prefers to misuse his diplomatic authority in favor of India’s political and economic adavantages. This became evidently clear.

Secondly, Prime Minister Bhattarai summarily ignored the diplomatic conduct and unilaterally disclosed the dates of the Chinese Prime Minister. Instantly after this disclosure, the Tibetan activities in Nepal attained a new height. Talks of self immolation too surfaced. Around the same time, the United States of America began pressurizing Nepal to provide Nepali Passports to the Nepal based Tibetan refugees or else, the US told that Nepal will have to face grave consequences. They even threatened that any rough attitude towards the Tibetan refugees taken by Nepal may force the US to withdraw its dollar support to Nepal. The Nepal government acquired a silent posture even when it was being threatened in such an insulting manner. The government exhibited its insensitivities even on such serious matters coming as it did from the US official quarters. Under the prevailing circumstances, the possibility of the visit of the Prime Minister of a nation- which is now a rising power was simply unimaginable. Thus what I presume is that it could have been these prime reasons which may have forced the Chinese Prime Minister to postpone his visit to Nepal. I mean it.

If I am allowed to talk on a personal level, then I had just said last week in a TV Channel interview that China PM’s Nepal visit was an impossible affair or at best Nepal PM Bhattarai will do all he can in order to downplay or even damage this high level visit from China. This was my comment made while being interviewed.

I feel comfortable now as what I had predicted in advance has come to true yet I feel somewhat disturbed because such a sad event has occurred which has undermined and even aborted the visit of a highly honorable friend from China. It pains me that PM Wen’s Nepal visit was dragged into an unwanted controversy.  This may have also to a greater extent dampened our ancient ties with the Northern neighbor China. We the unquestionable friends of China in Nepal remain in a mentally shocked state.


What if Kashmiri dissidents come Nepal and initiate anti-Indian demonstrations?

Deepak Gajurel, Political Scientist, TU

TGQ5: Why Chinese Premier's visit was cancelled? What say you Mr. Gajurel?
Deepak Gajurel: The visit was cancelled because of the following reasons:

One, undiplomatic behavior exhibited by Nepali Prime Minister and other ministers. While the schedule of the visit was not announced bilaterally in consultations, as per diplomatic norms and customs, the Nepali PM unilaterally declared the visit of Wen Jiabao. This must have been taken by Beijing as dishonor.

Second, Chinese were given to understand that the government in Nepal is not a stable one, and is about to collapse anytime soon. The coalition partners' untimely waywardness on issues of 'Sahamati' could not be taken by anyone as normal, especially when a high-profile friend is visiting your home country.

The third cause obviously is related with the Tibetan issue. There was a suspicion, rather somewhat confirmed signals that Tibetans residing in Nepal could hold anti-China demonstration during Jiabao visit in Kathmandu. In addition, the so called major parties could covertly encourage, the likelihood remained, and promote such anti-Chinese activities. We should not forget the activities of our 'leaders' in the past. Whom do you trust, when Nepali CA members from 'major parties' visit Dalai Lama for his 'blessings?'

Let me put a pinch of salt in this context. Just imagine, if Kashmiri dissidents come to Nepal as refugees and initiate anti-Indian demonstrations? What would be the Indian reactions, and what would be the reaction of the Western countries in that eventuality?

 It is strange that the Tibetans are not following the dharma of the guests by making host Nepal to be in a difficult and inconvenient position.

Fourth, but not the least, the feeling of inconvenience and discomfort from the South too could have played a role. The hasty actions for fulfilling their 'demands' from one quarter and abnormally widespread media coverage, both in Nepal and in India, of the volume and nature of possible 'aid' from China to Nepal, as propagated by our rulers could not be a mere coincidence.


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