By HARSH V. PANT, The Japan Times
July 2, 2012
LONDON — There have been reports
in the Indian media that New Delhi is planning to withdraw from joint oil
exploration with Hanoi in the South China Sea.
Although no formal announcement
has been made yet to this effect, Indian officials have been suggesting that
oil Block 128 has not shown promising results, so commercially it makes sense
to withdraw.
At a time when the South China
Sea is the focal point of regional turmoil in East Asia, India's decision will
have repercussions far beyond the mere technicalities of hydrocarbon
production.
Even if there may be no oil in
this joint effort, the way it is being announced is bound to be interpreted
that India has no stomach for challenging China in its backyard. Hanoi has
already suggested that New Delhi's decision is a response to pressure from
China.
It was just last year that New
Delhi had asserted its rights in the international waters of South China Sea,
signaling a deepening of its engagement with Vietnam. The Indian external
affairs minister had snubbed China, making it clear that India's ONGC Videsh
Ltd. (OVL) would continue to explore for oil and natural gas in two Vietnamese
blocks of the South China Sea.
Asking countries "outside
the region" to stay away from the South China Sea, China had issued a
demarche to India, underlining that Beijing's permission should be sought for
exploration in Blocks 127 and 128 and that, without it, OVL's activities would
be considered illegal.
Vietnam, meanwhile, had
underlined the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to claim
its sovereign rights over the two blocks being explored. India decided to go by
Vietnam's claims and ignore China's objections.
New Delhi's bold move was aimed
at asserting India's legal claims in the international waters of the South
China Sea as well as strengthening its relationship with Vietnam. Both moves
unsettled China, which views India's growing engagement in East Asia with
suspicion.
India's decision to explore
hydrocarbons with Vietnam had come after an unidentified Chinese warship had
demanded that the INS Airavat, an amphibious assault vessel, identify itself
and explain its presence in the South China Sea after the vessel left
Vietnamese waters. The Indian warship was completing a scheduled port call in
Vietnam and was in international waters.
Though the Indian Navy denied
that a Chinese warship had confronted its assault vessel, as reported by
London's Financial Times, it did not completely deny the factual basis of the
report.
If the display of backbone in
pursuing joint oil exploration with Vietnam, despite Chinese objections, had
helped India — strengthening relations with Vietnam and forcing others to
acknowledge it as a credible player in the region — the unceremonious
announcement of withdrawal will not only disappoint Hanoi but also call into
question the whole idea of India as a regional balancer in the Indo-Pacific.
Smaller states in East and Southeast Asia have been looking to New Delhi to
help offset China's rise.
Unless managed carefully, India's
credibility will come into question.
To control the damage to its
reputation from this sudden volte-face, India should make it clear to Hanoi
that, despite this decision, it will continue to expand strategic ties with
Vietnam.
After all, both nations have
stakes in ensuring sea-lane security, as well as shared concerns about Chinese
access to the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.
As the South China Sea becomes a
flashpoint, Hanoi has been busy courting its erstwhile rival, the United States,
and the U.S. has been asking India to "engage east and act east as
well."
Solidarity among major powers
with regard to South China Sea disputes is essential in forcing China to
moderate its maximalist position on this issue.
China is too big and too powerful
to be ignored by the regional states. But the states in China's vicinity are
now seeking to expand their strategic space by reaching out to other regional
and global powers.
Smaller states in the region are
now looking to India to act as a balancer in view of China's growing influence
and America's anticipated retrenchment from the region in the near future.
Larger states see India as an
attractive engine for regional growth.
To live up to its full potential
and meet the region's expectations, India must do a more convincing job of
emerging as a credible strategic partner in the region.
It is dangerous for international
relations to allow an impression to develop that New Delhi can be browbeaten
into submission. If China can operate in India's backyard and systematically
expand its influence, then there is no reason why India should feel diffident
about operating in areas that China considers its own sphere of influence.
India's diffidence in foreign
policy remains the reason why, despite pursuing a "Look East" policy
for the last two decades, it continues to be a marginal player in East Asian
geopolitics.
Harsh V. Pant teaches at King's
College London.
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