By JANE PERLEZ, NY Times, July 24, 2012
BEIJING — The disputes between China
and four of its Southeast Asian neighbors over claims in the South China Sea
have become so intense, the prospect of open conflict is becoming more likely,
an authoritative new report says.
The disputes, enmeshed in the
competition for energy resources, have reached an impasse, according to the report, by the International Crisis Group, a research
organization that has become a leading authority on the frictions.
“All of the trends are in the
wrong direction, and prospects of resolution are diminishing,” said the report,
titled “Stirring Up the South China Sea: Regional Responses.”
The pessimistic conclusion came a
day after China stepped up its political and military control
of the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which both Vietnam and the Philippines claim, and
the Macclesfield Bank, claimed by the Philippines. The islands are known in
Chinese as Xisha, Nansha and Zhongsha.
On Monday, the Philippine
president, Benigno S. Aquino III,
announced plans to buy aircraft, including attack helicopters, that could be
used in territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China and the Philippines
have competing claims there over the Scarborough Shoal and potentially
energy-rich underwater ground around Reed Bank, among other areas.
In a speech before a joint
session of the Philippine Congress, Mr. Aquino adopted an aggressive stance
against an unspecified threat. “If someone enters your yard and told you he
owns it, will you allow that?” he said. “It’s not right to give away what is
rightfully ours.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry
responded on Tuesday, saying that the Philippine president had no legal
standing to rely on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea as the basis for his claim on Huangyan Island, the Chinese name for the
Scarborough Shoal.
The analysis by the International
Crisis Group apportions blame to both China and its neighbors for the
ratcheting up of incidents and tensions in the sea, one of the most traveled
bodies of water in the world and a vital pathway for the United States and its
allies. The group’s Beijing office has spent two years studying the South China
Sea, interviewing decision makers in China and in the claimant countries.
In April, the group released a report focused on the military and civilian agencies
that play a role in China’s actions in the South China Sea, ranging from the
People’s Liberation Army to a fisheries bureau.
The vagueness of China’s claims
to islands and energy resources in the sea has rattled other claimants, the new
report said. China bases some of its claims in the sea on discoveries by
ancient Chinese navigators.
More specifically, China lays claim to everything
within what is called a nine-dash map drawn shortly after World War II. By some estimates,
the nine dashes mark off 80 percent of the South China Sea.
But China’s assertive approach
has been matched by Vietnam and the Philippines, which are forcefully defending
their claims and enlisting outside allies, the report said.
“South China Sea claimants are
all anxious to pursue oil and gas exploration in the portions of the sea that
they claim, and are concerned with protecting their claimed fishing grounds as
coastal waters become depleted,” it said. The fact that the waters are mostly
patrolled by civilian vessels run by national governments was of little
comfort.
“In spite of being more lightly
armed and less threatening than navy ships, civilian law enforcement vessels
are easier to deploy, operate under looser chains of command and engage more
readily in skirmishes,” the report said.
In an example of civilian
vessels’ plying the South China Sea with possibly serious consequences, the
Philippine Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that it objected to a fleet of 29
fishing vessels, a cargo vessel and three other ships, protected by a Chinese
Navy vessel near Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef, two areas of the South China
Sea that the Philippines claims.
Bree Feng contributed research.
Courtesy: New York Times
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