By Emily Lodish, Global Post
After the disparate nations
that make up the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) failed to agree on a
roadmap to resolution on the South China Sea, China went ahead and — shockingly
— did its own thing.
It established a brand new
city in the region.
For some time, China has
claimed the islands in the South China Sea and the surrounding waters as
Chinese territory. It says that historical findings in the area, namely pottery
shards and some old maps, mean the entire region belongs to China, full-stop.
From the perspective of the
UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, however, a number of Southeast Asian
countries have legitimate claims to territory in the South China Sea.
In effort to clear up any
gray area, China has established its new prefecture, called Sansha and located
on Yongxing Island, which is meant administer the Xisha, Zhongsha and Nansha
Islands and their surrounding waters in the South China Sea.
Yes, it's controversial.
To help make sense of the
moves we talked with Andrew Billo, senior program officer with the Asia Society
who specializes in Southeast Asia.
The South China Sea has
been a flashpoint for decades. What is pushing the issue to a head now?
Without a doubt, the US
involvement is pushing this to a head. The new factor over the last, say, two
years, is the increased US interest in this region. Southeast Asian countries
are emboldened by US interest in this issue and the fact that they might have
the support of the US military in respect to this issue even if the US has not
explicitly said so.
The US has said explicitly that
it’s not taking sides in the matter but at the same time it’s evident to
everyone involved that the US is in fact showing partiality to some of these
smaller ASEAN countries.
The US has been pressing very
hard in the region, with Leon Panetta going to Vietnam and with the US
submarine being parked in Subic Bay in the Philippines. These are little
measures, but they are making China nervous and making China assert itself to a
greater extent within this region.
And the economy is behind
the US interest?
The US has recognized its
economic interests lie in the Asian region. Europe was perhaps the main
economic interest of the US in the last half of the 20th century, and Asia is
of course looking like it’s going to be the main economic driver for this
century. The US is recognizing that it needs to be more of a part of that
economic engine.
What's really at stake in
the South China Sea?
Primarily the energy resources,
and to a lesser extend the fisheries, and then to an even lesser extent tourism
potential. And the other issue is of course the freedom of navigation issues.
But I see it primarily as an energy issue. People are eyeing the energy
potential of the region, I don’t think they're out to block these trade routes
specifically.
What is that resource
potential exactly?
Well, no one really knows
actually. Any time exploratory activities are undertaken, other countries put
up a fuss. China won’t even let Vietnam begin to look, or when Vietnam does
begin to look there’s always an issue. So people don’t really have a very clear
idea as to what it is exactly that they’re fighting over. But I think that
potential is there.
So are we likely to see
an escalation soon?
I think at present the economies
in that part of the world, or at least in that basin, are relatively stable and
even growing, so it isn't in anyone's best interest to have tensions escalate.
While things continue to progress in a more or less positive manner, so long as
these societies are relatively content with their situation, we aren't likely
to see an escalation.
But at a certain point China’s
not going to have sufficient energy resources to support its own population.
Nor are some of these other countries. If it gets to that point, that’s when
we’ll see an escalation. Conventional belief is that this will not really
escalate really further within the next 10 years or so, but after 10 years, who
knows? This is the window of time to iron things out before it comes to a head.
What can be done to iron
things out?
I think ASEAN is the best way to
move forward with this, and they have a declaration on the code of conduct with
respect to the South China Sea. But ASEAN also issues a lot of declarations,
and declarations are just that. They’re not binding.
There was a lot of disappointment
at the recent ASEAN summit in Cambodia when they were unable to issue further
steps forward with respect to the code of conduct. China lobbied very hard for
Cambodia to keep the issue off the agenda. So that was a significant blow to
this moving forward.
I think it's a tough year right
now with US political change and Chinese political change. I think that if you
can get past the end of this year then it buys more time and allows things to
cool off a bit.
Courtesy: Globalpost.com
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatches/globalpost-blogs/chatter/south-china-sea-andrew-billo-asia-society
July
27, 2012 06:35
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