By David Piper
In the 19th Century Afghanistan was seen as a major prize for the
superpowers of that time, Britain
and Russia.
It was known as ‘The Great Game’
and involved the two nations attempting to gain influence over Afghanistan and
surrounding Central Asian countries by bribes, intimidation or military
conquest.
The heart of that 19th Century
‘Cold War’ was the desire to gain access to sell their wares in the lucrative
markets of the region and also the prize of India,
which Britain then ruled and
feared Russia
coveted.
Afghanistan has been fought over so
many times that it has become well known as a graveyard for invading armies.
The British found that out to
their cost in the 19th Century and the USSR discovered that bitter truth
in the 20th Century.
Now the U.S. led
coalition is counting down the days until all its combat troops have left the
country by the end of 2014.
The Alliance has vowed, though, to keep
supporting the Afghan government as it battles the Taliban and other groups for
control of the country.
Afghanistan is, of course, too
important to allow it to become a safe haven again for terrorists to launch
further attacks on the West.
But while the soldiers of the Alliance get ready to
pack up and head home other countries are now preparing for a new struggle to
gain influence in this troubled country.
China,
Russia and four Central
Asian countries have now vowed to play a larger role in Afghanistan.
At a summit of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) this week in Beijing
Afghanistan was also granted
observer status of the group that was created as a counterbalance to US and
NATO influence in Central Asia.
Chinese President Hu Jintao was
quoted in the People’s Daily newspaper:
"We will... play a greater
role in the peaceful reconstruction process in Afghanistan…The SCO supports
Afghanistan becoming an independent, peaceful, prosperous, neighborly country,
free from terrorism and drugs," he said.
James Brazier from HIS Global
Insight believes fears over the spread of terrorism across the region once the
US led alliance pulls out is uppermost in the minds of those countries:
“The Shanghai Cooperation
Organization has reason to fear an unstable Afghanistan. Its main role is to
prevent insurgency and narcotics smuggling throughout Central
Asia.
If Afghanistan
again becomes Disneyworld for jihadists, then there’s a risk of contagion into
the brittle post-Soviet states in Central Asia
the SCO is designed to protect.”
The SCO is also committed to
closer security ties including adopting an anti-terrorism plan and, what it
describes as, establishing a swift response mechanism.
That mechanism would allow SCO
members to request help of other members during domestic emergencies.
Such a policy could, though.
mean Russian and Chinese forces getting involved in dealing with
terrorists in the region, including Afghanistan if it becomes a full
member.
Neither China or Russia at the
moment seem to have the stomach for an Afghan adventure but even the
possibility of the country coming within their orbit will concern the United
States and its allies.
The major counterbalances to that
in the region have historically been India
and Pakistan.
But China
has already got strong military ties with Pakistan
while Russia has for decades
been on good relations with India.
The Obama administration, though,
is clearly hoping that India
will be the answer with Defense Secretary Leon Panetta calling for deeper
military ties with the country during his visit this week to Delhi.
"I think close partnership
with America will be key to
meeting India's
own stated aims of a modern and effective defense force," he said.
The US
is also looking to India to
have more influence in Afghanistan,
despite its history of non-alignment.
India
has, though, already signed a wide-ranging agreement with Kabul
to strengthen ties between the two countries, including the training of Afghan
officers in India.
James Brazier of HIS Global
Insight doesn’t believe India
is the answer to US concerns about creeping Chinese and Russian influence:
“India’s
regional influence in Central Asia is constricted because its tucked under the
Himalayas and Pakistan
acts as its “gatekeeper” to the west. So if the US
wants a someone to help project influence in Central Asia, I doubt that India’s it.”
He instead believes the US and
Pakistan should try to resolve their current differences and work together in
the future as they did in the past when they helped push Soviet forces out of
Afghanistan in the 1980’s.
Beyond concerns about spreading
terrorism and spheres of influence there is a growing factor that seems to be
concentrating the minds of all the major powers, and that is the potential
riches to be unearthed in Afghanistan
and as a route for pipelines and trade.
The US
has, what it describes as a “New Silk Road” strategy that involves attempting
to improve trade ties between the countries of central Asia
and the Indian sub-continent.
The aim of it is to bring
economic prosperity to the region and hopefully that will undermine the
extremists.
The US
is also promoting the benefits of the TAPI pipeline project that would bring
natural gas from Turkmenistan
across Afghanistan to
markets in Pakistan and India.
Rival powers are already, though,
arguing over who will build the pipeline with India objecting to Chinese
engineers being involved in the project despite their experience, as some
suggest it would bring Beijing more influence in the region and a player in the
longstanding disputes between India and Pakistan.
The race for the Afghanistan’s natural resources has already
begun and China and India are the
frontrunners.
A Pentagon report back in 2010
said that surveys showed that Afghanistan
has untapped mineral deposits of nearly a $1 trillion.
Despite the potential bonanza US
companies have shied away from investing here because of security concerns, but
Chinese and Indian companies have dived in despite the risks.
A consortium of Indian companies
has won extraction rights to part of a massive 1.8 billion tones iron ore
deposit less than a hundred miles from Kabul.
The Indian government has
promised to support the development of the mining sector in Afghanistan and its thought one of the reasons
behind the investment was the fear that China
and Pakistan
was trying to dominate the sector.
Chinese companies are currently
developing a huge copper mine just 20 miles from Kabul
in the province
of Logar.
They expect to begin production
by 2015 despite the discovery of an ancient Buddhist site in the area that
slowed its development.
The challenge will be to get the
natural resources to markets.
India
is looking at improving rail links from Afghanistan
to ports in Iran, while China is looking to develop the railway north
through Uzbekistan
despite the security problems of going that way.
The new “Great Game” seems to
have started already in trying to gain influence over Afghanistan and
exploit its natural resources.
But it’s unlikely to involve
foreign armies, instead Chinese and Indian companies are pouring into the
country in search of riches.
Courtesy: Foxnews.com
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