N. P. Upadhyaya Nepali
Kathmandu: With the emergence of a new Maoists
party, the country’s politics is poised to embrace several such splits.
Symptoms have already surfaced.
The Janjatis belonging to the Nepali Congress
and the UML have already threatened that they will not settle for less than
having a identity/community based federal order in Nepal.
If things go smoothly and if the mood of the
leaders from the Janjati community remains as aggressive as they have become
now then what is for sure is that the Nepali Congress and the UML will not be
able to avert the splits that were already in the pipeline.
Needless to say, the Janjati leaders have the
political acumen and the required stamina to form new parties and run the new
entities in an effective manner.
If this does happen, and the strong likelihood
of which remains, the NC and the UML will pay the price for their past misdeeds
wherein the party top hats had ignored the very existence of the Janjati
community. The parties must admit this blunder.
At yet another plane, with the expected but
abrupt death of the Constituent Assembly body, the question of legitimacy of the
office of the Nepal Prime Minister and that of the Nepal President too has come
under intense debate and constitutional discussions.
If the Prime Minister now is a caretaker one
then how come the office of the Nepali Presidency which had elected the incumbent
President has itself become non-existence?
Doesn’t this mean that the office of the Nepal
President too has become a defunct political institution?
By extension, some constitutional experts even
challenge the very authority of the Interim constitution that is still in
force?
By the way, Mr. Dina Nath Sharma, June 27,
2012, openly told Dr. Yadav that he had no constitutional authority to sack
Nepal PM Bhattarai. President Yadav must have been in a tensed state.
Kamal Thapa has already declared that the
decisions taken by the CA body, beginning May 28, 2008 till its sad demise
stand null and void and that the nation has already reverted back to the days
of the Royal regime, early 2006.
Many political complications have cropped up
with the sudden death of the legitimate but money spinning CA body, also taken
as national burden.
Perhaps it is because of these complications,
the caretaker Prime Minister Bhattarai upon his return to Kathmandu from Brazil
told the media men point blank that “I will not resign under pressure”.
Yet he opines now that if consensus then he may
resign. But when consensus and for what? Bhattarai has played a trick.
Incidents of several cardiac arrests remain
high in the political paraphernalia.
Attention NORVIC and Ganga Lal hospitals.
As if this were not enough to tease the parties
now in the opposition who have been demanding Bhattarai’s immediate resignation
to facilitate the formation of what they call a national unity government, the
caretaker Prime Minister took the opposition demand as a “childish act”.
Nepali Congress President Sushil Koirala who
had already made up his mind to become the next Nepal Prime Minister after
Bhattarai resigned, must have a sleepless night, June 25, 2012, when he
listened to what Bhattarai said of his resignation. Another potential contender
of Nepal PM post from the NC quota is yet to be discharged from the Hospital.
The entire opposition must have fallen flat
listening to what Bhattarai said at the Airport upon his arrival in Kathmandu. Prachanda too have been shocked upon
listening to such an arrogant remarks. Chairman Dahal though has assured Madhav
Nepal that he will take penal actions against Bhattarai if the latter did not
tender his resignation.
But what if Bhattarai pounces upon Dahal?
Dahal-Bhattarai possible fierce conflict already visible. But it could be a
joint trick to dupe the opposition as it so happens occasionally.
Constitutionally speaking, the Nepal President,
whose post itself remains in a debatable state, has no authority or whatsoever
to sack the functioning Prime Minister, claim some.
But yet if he takes steps in sacking the Prime
Minister as per the encouragements being made to him by the visiting opposition
parties, his own office may thus be challenged by the sacked Prime Minister. To
recall, Bhattarai has already warned the President not to take any steps which
could boomerang on him time permitting. Under these very constitutional
complexities, the question thus is: whether or not the President dares to sack
the Prime Minister? And even if he sacks the PM then how will the country’s
politics proceed thereafter? Chaos or a
complete silence?
By the way, the Nepal President must not ignore
the fact that Bhattarai has returned Nepal with the required and the desired
blessing from the Indian Prime Minister-the de facto ruler of Nepal.
If the Indian blessing was there for Bhattarai
then it should mean that India still counts on Bhattarai-the former JNU
Graduate. He has to pay the price of the
salt that he may have consumed while being for so long in India.
Perhaps observing this visible and clear
Indo-pendent leaning of caretaker Bhattarai, the Chinese Prime Minister
summarily ignored to meet the Nepali PM in Brazil despite of hilarious efforts
that was made by the lousy foreign ministry officials.
These speaks of so many things unspoken and
thus no wonder that Beijing now prefers to enter into the “12 point champions
club” and brainwash their perverted brains which gets reflected from the
ongoing Beijing visit of Madhav Kumar Nepal. This could be just the beginning
of the beginning.
To recall, Beijing understands though that Mr.
Nepal is the one who scolded China by being in New Delhi, 2005 but yet
preferred to invite him. This must have some meaning underneath. Hopefully,
Mohan Baidya and his entire team may soon visit China. Sujata will be more than
pleased if she is invited to Beijing. Why not to give it a try? Mr. Khanal will
also rush to visit Beijing, if invited, to pay a tribute to late Chairman Mao
Tse Tung.
Madhav just signed a deal in Beijing with the
Chinese officials for some construction works in Lumbini.
China has begun picking up the Nepali leaders
for a trip to Beijing when she has been creating mild problems for India of
late in a direct and indirect manner both.
China has begun talking of Kashmir of late.
Could be a design to make fun of India and keep its rival also engaged in the
border issues so that she may penetrate into Nepali politics.
China has already entered Bhutan, the soft
underbelly of India, by the way.
Look what a Chinese high level authority
freshly said of Kashmir: “If the Kashmir dispute is not handled
carefully by India, it may have negative impact on Beijing’s bilateral
relations with India.
However, China had no intentions
to meddle in the dispute”.
The statement was given by the Spokesman and the DG of the Information Department of Ministry of Defense, Senior Col Geng Yansheng, while talking to a select group of visiting journalists from India.
The visiting Indian media men may
have trembled from within. What a befitting treatment to the honored guests?
Maintaining that Jammu and Kashmir is a disputed territory between India and Pakistan, China has also expressed the hope that the two countries will be able to resolve the issue bilaterally and peacefully.
Says Col Geng Yansheng , "Our stand is clear. Jammu and Kashmir is a disputed area between India and Pakistan. It is a sensitive issue. China is handling this sensitive issue carefully to avoid any misunderstanding.”
Delhi, hopefully will remain
absorbed in understanding the inner meaning of the Chinese message on Kashmir
and in the time left in between, Beijing will increase its influence in Nepal
through the kind courtesy of those Nepali leaders who have been seeking
Bhattarai’s summary ouster.
As if this were not enough, yet
another Chinese scholar, Jia Xiudong, a Senior Fellow in Residence at the
state-run China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), told the Indian
journalists, June 26, 2012, that “the islands in the South China Sea and the
adjacent waters fall within its "core interests" and it will not
accept any "provocative action" in the sea off the China coast.
This could be a message to India
because the latter too exhibited its interests in having its engagement in the
South China Sea activities under US encouragement.
To recall, CIIS is of the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and conducts research and analysis on a wide range
of foreign policy issues, according to the official website.
Sounding a tough note, Jia said
that China's "restraint" should not be taken as "a sign of
weakness and acceptance of encroachment of sovereignty".
Strong warning indeed.
"China will react now, or in future, no matter what others think of China, in regard to sovereignty issues," he asserted while talking to a group of visiting Indian journalists.
This by implication means that
China will instantly hit back if Tibet is destabilized from the Nepali soil.
Interestingly, China is sending
this rough and tough message to Delhi through the Indian media men. Straight
talks works fast.
Delhi must have got the point.
But will Delhi halt teasing China?
At yet another plane, the Indo-US
axis is being further mocked by China-Pakistan newly “increased” friendship.
Fresh reports have it that
Western states pressured China at closed-door talks, according to Reuters, last
week to address concerns about its plans to expand a nuclear power plant in
Pakistan and provide more information, but were rebuffed, two diplomatic
sources said on Wednesday, Reuters claimed.
To boot, Beijing's atomic
relations with Islamabad have caused unease in Washington, Delhi and other
capitals due to Pakistan's possession of nuclear arms technology.
But China, claim reports, showed no
sign of reconsidering its position on building two more reactors at the Chashma
nuclear power complex in Pakistan's Punjab region, the official and another
source said, a stance Beijing also took when the issue was raised in last
year's NSG talks in the Dutch city of Noordwijk, writes Reuters from Vienna
dated June 27, 2012.
As its ties with the United
States have suffered, Pakistan has been trying to move closer to Asian
powerhouse China, which has welcomed Islamabad's overtures. A trusted friend is
need. This has logic.
One more added headache for India
and the US.
But this headache will soon
disappear by creating problems for China from the Nepali soil.
In such a background, China’s
sensitivity in Nepal will surely increase as Nepali media reports have it that
“Free Tibet Movement is in full swing and is likely to increase in the
immediate days”.
Things have begun moving.
Media report, for example, as
carried by the Rajdhani daily dated June 26, 2012, even claims that Sudip
Pathak is the main man who controls the entire anti-China activities, including
Free Tibetan Movement, from the Nepali soil.
Mr. Pathak so far has not
clarified his innocence as regards such a grave accusation.
A secret report compiled by the
National Investigation bureau too has claimed this thus what could be expected
that the Indo-US axis is in a re-energized state whose activities will increase
incredibly the day Peter Boddy, the new US Ambassador to Nepal lands Kathmandu
to take up his new assignment.
His fluency in Nepali language
will be an added advantage to Ambassador Peter Boddy.
All put together, India and China
will surely meet in Nepal together with the US siding with India.
How China takes up this challenge
with its loose lobby, if at all that exists, will have to be observed.
By the way, a Nepali national,
Tamding Dorje is highly likely to be nominated as the official representative
of The Dalai Lama in Nepal, claims Rajdhani daily.
China must recall and repent over
the political follies she made during 2006 upheaval by siding with its arch
rival-India.
Nepal’s political fluidity is
sure to increase in the days ahead. The country is really in a very bad
shape. Worst is yet to come.
Welcome the Dragon and the
Elephant in Nepal.
Written on June 26,
posted on June 28, 2012 with some addition: Chief ed.
Courtesy: Telegraphnepal.com
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