By Deepak Gajurel,
Associate Professor, Political
Science, TU, Nepal
(Courtesy: Telegraphnepal.com)
Nepali politics took a full
circle. With the natural and long expected death of the Constituent Assembly,
the future of the nation’s polity is in a limbo. The slogan of ‘national
consensus’ turned to be an illusion. The political parties, who promised six
years ago to make a ‘New Nepal,’ are a complete failure. And the country is in
the verge of a political chaos: nobody knows what will happen the next moment!
Nepal’s friends beyond the borders
are expressing worries for the current state of domestic affairs. Our immediate
neighbors have expressed concerns which has been also shared by the world’s
major powers and the world body, the United Nations. It seems that we Nepalis
are not alone at the time of this failed course.
Though ‘worries’ have come in the
context of the failure of the promulgating a new constitution, with Federal
Democratic Republic characteristics, some serious concerns too have emerged.
And this is the point where a nationalist Nepali should ponder over with proper
care.
One of Nepal’s
giant neighbors, China,
has expressed serious concern that Nepali soil is being misused by anti-China
elements. It is reported in the local media in Kathmandu that Chinese
Ambassador has recently cautioned our ‘caretaker’ prime minister that some
Christian establishments working in Nepal have been engaged against China’s
national interests, creating troubles in Tibet, China’s soft belly.
A few days back, a Chinese
professor warned that some foreign forces were trying to split Nepal’s Terai
region into semi or complete independent entity. If this happens, the Chinese
professor in an interview with the BBC Nepali Service warned strongly, that
there will be a heightened danger for Beijing
from China’s
declared enemies, namely the Dalai Lama.
What does all this mean at a time
when Nepal’s
political fluidity remains in a dangerous situation?
The signal from the North is
clear. Chinese understanding is that the United
States, with assistance from India, can play from a weakened
Nepali soil and act against the Chinese national security interests.
Thus, Chinese interest in Nepal is to block the penetration of those forces
which could pose a serious threat to its national security interests,
especially through Tibet.
Nepal's importance has been
amplified in terms of regional as well as international power equations. Since
the beginning of 'peace process,' Nepal's
two giant neighbors - China
and India – along with the United States
are engaged in activities unmatched in the past. The current imbroglio of
political uncertainty is a mere reflection of the power rivalry among these
three major powers, that are competing for increased role in the world arena in
general, and in this region of the Himalayan Asia, in particular.
And China seems now to have understood
this ground reality. Better late than never.
This is the question of survival
for our northern neighbor. Nepal
is becoming a headache for China
for the preservation of its vital national interests.
The end of monarchy in Nepal was a Himalayan blow to the Chinese, as Nepal's
Monarchs have traditionally been clocking the entire anti-China activities from
Nepali soil. With the advent of, what is being called as, ‘Loktantra’ in 2006,
events have proved that ‘Loktantrik’ political setup in Nepal is not going to be friendly for Beijing. Anti-China
road-shows are not limited to Kathmandu
streets, they have been approached up to Sino-Nepal borders. Such activities
were unthinkable while there used to be a monarch in Kathmandu.
This is what Chinese must now
have realized. Beijing exhibited its reluctance
in coming forward during ‘Jana Andolan-II’ while the monarchy was being
sidelined in an undemocratic manner in Nepal. ‘It’s your internal matter
and we do not interfere into other’s domestic affairs’ was the Chinese version
at that time which more or less remains the same even as of today.
It seems that the Chinese are just
as determined as the Indians to see that they have a 'friendly face' at the
helm in Kathmandu, someone they can count on to crush the increasing activity
of the 'free Tibet' movement from Nepali land.
Chinese interests in Nepal should be
analyzed in terms of regional perspective as well. The political changes that
took place in this part of the world of late encouraged China to take
an aggressive posture. Using the Nepali soil, there have been some noticeable
anti-China activities which have increased exponentially over these years, more
so after 2006 change. Nepal's
soil has been used by anti-China elements.
Anti-China slogans were chanted
in the streets of Kathmandu. Both visible and
invisible activities were noticed to have gone against China's national
interests. Such acts have sensitized the Chinese regime which may have
concluded that such acts could in the long run pose a grave threat to its
national security, particularly through Tibet.
The Chinese may have concluded
that if Nepal
become politically instable, the society and government being weaker, the
chances of foreign forces entering into Nepali affairs would be high, which
eventually would be counterproductive to its own national security. The
situation remains intact.
Thus, China
is taking such actions in Nepal
to confront and counter-balance India
and seems to continue to act similarly in other countries in India’s neighborhood, especially in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. In the past, China viewed the monarchy in Nepal as the
most stable, credible and dependable partner and the mainstream political
parties as pro-India. Chinese security interests, which have been China’s prime concern in Nepal, were served by the King in the past
without annoying India.
Telegraphnepal.com, June06, 2012
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