By Yubaraj Ghimire
The heightened tussle between
Baburam Bhattarai and Ram Baran Yadav makes the road ahead less clear
A month after the demise of the
Constituent Assembly, Nepalese actors appear more confused about the way
forward. A power-tussle between President Ram Baran Yadav and caretaker Prime
Minister Baburam Bhattarai further compounds the confusion. Bhattarai said he
will hand over power only to a prime minister elected after the general
elections scheduled for November 22. But Yadav, after consultations with legal
and constitutional experts, seems to have inferred that with the
constitutionally defined term of the House over, Bhattarai should not be
allowed to continue.
Bhattarai insists he will not
quit. He has said that his “quitting now may lead to a return of February 1” —
implying that it may bring the absolute monarchy back. Former King Gyanendra
had assumed all executive powers on February 1, 2005, only to return it to
political parties nine months later, under pressure of a mass movement backed
by the international community, including India. But the period until now has
led to a loss of face for the parties, including the Maoists, resulting in
chaos and constitutional breakdown.
Altogether, 78 members of the
dissolved CA belonging to the Nepali Congress submitted a petition seeking the
revival of the House to finish the constitution-writing task. The move has the
quiet support of Maoist chief Prachanda, as the revival of the House may also
restore his position as leader of the biggest party in the House. Then, he may
also be able to seek disqualification of party members who have formed the
Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists under the anti-defection law. Besides, there
is much at stake for the international community since they had invested so
much in forming lobbyists. Yet, reviving a House that wears the stigma of
failure does not have popular support, and it is likely to be contested
politically.
A spate of protests seeking
Bhattarai’s ouster and state repression are fast making him unpopular. His move
to prepare a full-fledged, and apparently populist, budget in the absence of
parliament and political consensus is being resisted by Yadav. On June 27, the
president asked the PM to bring only an “advance budget for three months”, or secure
political consensus to introduce a full budget.
The Election Commission has
expressed doubts over the possibility of elections in November. It has also
asked the government to clarify by July 22 whether the election is for the CA
(as recommended) or for parliament. Moreover, all the election commissioners
are retiring in October, and those positions are unlikely to be filled in the
absence of a full-fledged PM, leader of opposition and speaker who, along with
the chief justice, form the constitutional council that recommends such
appointments.
Where does Nepal go from here?
Concerns among donors and neighbours is rising. The British minister for
international development, Alan Duncan, came on a three-day stock-taking visit
to assess the post-CA politics.
China, a quiet player, has made
it clear that a chaotic and unstable Nepal, with “India-US” increasing their
clout “step-by-step”, is not something it will tolerate. Even as Indian
authorities unofficially talk about “keeping off” from Nepal for now, a recent
revelation by S.D. Muni, an actor in bringing Maoists and the establishment
together a decade ago, claims that Prachanda and Bhattarai established contact
with the Indian PMO back in June 2002 (“Bringing Maoists down from the Hill:
India’s Role” in Nepal in Transition, Cambridge University Press, 2012). It
raises doubts about India managing to escape. The revelation brings India into
fresh controversy.
Nepalese actors have got enough
outside forces to blame for the failure of the constitution-making process. But
that has not absolved them of responsibility. They are still not serious about
how to chart out the road to constitutional order and financial security
together. A president-PM tussle is certain to make the journey more
complicated, but it looks unavoidable.
Courtesy:
Indian Express
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