By N. P. Upadhyaya Nepali,
Kathmandu: As if in a disturbed Nepal, the prevalence of dilemma of various sorts, some of which are of our own creations, with a variety of shades and colors were not enough; one stickier situation has gripped the country’s politics just the other day, Tuesday to be more precise, June 19, 2012.
The new political episode is sure to catapult the country’s political setting which may further polarize the nation and its population in the days ahead. Such a schism may also encourage Nepal’s friends, near and far, to take their preferred political sides which ultimately may facilitate Nepal’s fertile soil to become the playground of foreign forces. Though symptoms of which are already available.
Thanks that the new Chairman of the freshly formed “Nepal Communist Party, Maoist”, Mohan Baidya Kiran-Pokhrel, has, rather convinced, that his party indeed will accomplish the unfinished tasks initiated by the previous People’s War through a fresh uprising, however, he also guaranteed his new colleagues and the population as well that for the time being insurgency as such will not rock the nation.
This does mean that Baidya will take some time to consolidate his party and may go in search for a suitable “international friend” for the required financial and “moral” support that he needs definitely.
But he talks of revolt? Should this mean that his team is still in possession of the weapons? The Dang military loot weapons? Is he indicating towards that?
These by extension mean that while depositing the arms and weapons to the state some time back, the Nepal Maoists submitted just a small portion of the total weapons then in their possession. This is very dangerous.
And now this raises a very pertinent question: Whether the current split is a calculated drama staged by Dahal, Bhattarai and Baidya? The drama in earnest right began, frankly speaking, from February 1996 which may have been continuing with the fresh split of the party even. The rehearsal of the drama definitely was practiced in New Delhi in association with great Indian dramatists.
Though his new party will be adored much by the strong nationalists if Baidya sticks to what he has been talking about the Indian establishment and its encroachment in Nepali affairs.
He made several allegations on India while talking to the press men, June 19, 2012.
Chances are fair that Baidya’s party may also secure the secret help from all those former big-wigs who have had been roughly humiliated and offended by the South Block in the recent years. Some even preferred to enter into the local Kathmandu jungles.
Unsubstantiated reports have it that some strong nationalists now housed in Baidya’s party have already approached this “special” sidelined group seeking both financial and moral support. By implication, it could also mean to have been a vice versa affair. However, the likelihood though remains high yet nothing concrete so far has come to the surface which could substantiate this possibility.
Baidya takes such opinions as “nonsense”.
Politics never though traverses in a path which is a straight one and politics at times forces one to have bizarre bed partners. This can’t be ignored given the circumstances that were unfortunately brewing inside the Maoists party have had only this outcome or else the party led by Chairman Prachanda would have exploded with a big bang and torn into pieces.
Though yet another split, time permitting, can’t be ruled out.
Now let’s talk of Baiadya’s formation of a new party and its impact in this party of Himalayan Asia.
Needless to say, the hardliner Naxals in India, and Bangladesh Maoists and some in Afghanistan (in whatever form they may have been at the moment) will receive a tremendous energy with the sudden development in Nepal.
The hardcore Naxals’ though have had secret links with the Mohan Baidya faction since long, more so after the party was forced to enter the Nepal peace process around 2006 by NOIDA veterans, but it took time for them to convince Mohan Baidya faction to split the party and initiate armed revolt against the old feudal elements both in India and Nepal, and accomplish the unfinished task of the advent of a proletarian order.
Though a belated affair, Mohan Baidya has split the party which yet remains to be authenticated as to which force on earth may have actually encouraged Baidya’s hardliner team to opt for a party split?
Is it the radical Naxals in India who have still been creating havoc across the Indian Territory to have approached and convinced Baidya? Or is it the Revolutionary International Movement, RIM, based in the US which put its entire strength in making the split a reality in Nepal? Or COMPOSA which is active in South Asian countries?
Bob Awakin, to recall, is a US national who is presumed to be the Chairman of the RIM paraphernalia. Interestingly, the US based RIM doesn’t create problems inside US-the melting pot; however, it prefers to export radical communism in South Asia. Very interesting idea indeed.
High placed sources claim that Mohan Baidya remains in close contact with the men of the RIM and COMPOSA both. Some meeting with the men of the RIM is supposed to have taken place in Kathmandu in certain unknown locations prior to the party split.
So is it an added headache for the Indian establishment or an opportunity? Could be both.
Headache in the sense that if the fresh Maoists splinter expands its relations with the Indian Naxals, which is very much on the cards, then Arundhati Roy and her ilk will have greater opportunities to pen several books on “The Growth of Naxalism in South Asia”.
Opportunity in the sense that back in Nepal, with this split, the strong Nepal Maoists, so far which had remained as the largest party will weaken which is what India desired for tooth and nail.
Now it remains yet to be seen as to how the Indian Naxals and the RIM led by Awakin and the COMPOSA come to extend their respective support to this newly born radical outfit in Nepal. Their support will, if at all it takes a shape even in a secret manner, would definitely change the very dynamics of the South Asian politics more so of Nepal, our own country. Its impact in India will be very high expectedly.
Yet chances remain very high that the RAW may enter through the backdoor inside this new party much similar the way it twisted the Arms through grand seductions of the champions of People’s War beginning 2004 through Ambassador Shyam Saran.
Mind it that Mr. Sanjiv Tripathi, the RAW Chief was in town recently. The Baidya sponsored party split has taken in and around his secret Nepal visit. A mere conjecture only?
By extension, should we envision that the party now led by Mohan Baidya will once again be used by the Indian establishment as an “Indian card against Nepal”? Tripathi perhaps knows more about this eventuality.
The possibility can’t be ruled out.
Note: Breakaway parties though have a short life span. It has been proved in Nepal. Thus there is nothing very special to get overly excited. By the way, two special members of this new Baidya team had recently visited Beijing.
To add insult to injury, one Chinese Professor, Ma Jiali, has very freshly said while talking to the Nagrik daily that, “The problem is that India does not treat Nepal equally”.
Is Chairman Baidya listening?
Does this speak of China’s increasing interests in Nepal of late? Perhaps yes!
By and by, each and every communist movement in Nepal begins targeting New Delhi’s highhandedness in Nepali politics; however, the tentative “sponsored” drama ends right in Delhi under the mediation of the ones whom the Nepali communists make the target.