By N. P. Upadhyaya Nepali,
Kathmandu: Many would not believe but high placed informed citizenry opine that Nepal as a nation-state began taking a definite slide right from the very day India forced the seven agitating parties to sign the most ad nauseating 12 point agreement with the force of a treaty, November 22, 2005.
The politics as it stands today could well be said that it is nothing but the outcome of the unholy alliance of the so called parliamentary parties with the radical communists now turned capitalists. People’s War now has turned into a Money War, claim critics.
To recall, the then American Ambassador to Nepal, James F. Moriarty had said , February 16, 2006, at a Hotel Annapurna seminar ( it was either a Rotary or Jaycees gathering) that he remains in a puzzled state in understanding the very content and the inner design of the said 12 point agreement.
In fact he expressed his surprise over whether the parliamentary parties had brought the radical Maoists to their fold, as was being claimed by Girija and his Delhi trained cohorts, or the radicals forced the former come to their terms?
Now as the things stand today, even a senile person can analyse the events and openly claim that the then Delhi residing Maoists, as per the US Ambassador, instead had brought the parliamentary parties to function as per their wishes and preferences after entering into the mainstream Nepali politics. The climax is there for all to see. Moriarty was hundred percent correct.
This scribe had himself listened to what Moriarty had stated on that very particular day of the Nepali parliamentary parties and also those of the Maoists-then guests of South Block.
His assessment made then has come true. This by implication means that till then the US was not feeling easy with the parliamentary parties signing the India sponsored 12 point deal as he smelt rat in the entire affair which has now taken a shape which is what had been desired by the ones who drafted the agreement in Hindi language later translated into Nepali for Kathmandu consumption. It was a pencil written draft, if fact.
This once again by extension unfolds the then existing reality that the US Ambassador was favouring the King as the US policy had been and will remain perhaps so for long time to come (but now conditions apply) and, as the US envoy told personally told this scribe( during tea session), that(sic), “Your King tells me every time I meet him that he will hand over his entire authority to the parliamentary parties well within three months time…however, those three months will perhaps never come”.
This way Ambassador Moriarty expressed his pain. His pain also contained the subtle message that he was not at all happy with the parliamentary parties signing the dangerous deal as he had guessed in advance that the agreement will completely go in favour of the radical Maoists.
If the US was siding with the King and was against the parties signing the Delhi deal then what distanced the US with the King?
Is it the same three months time? Perhaps yes! More is yet to come.
A pretty annoyed US envoy then slowly began talking against the ruling monarch to the extent that at the fag end of the so called people’s Uprising-II, he even made a very uncommon and dirty remarks against the Nepal King for which he was summoned by the Nepalese Foreign Ministry to clarify his fiery statement made against the King.
Perhaps this was the height of the US insult which catapulted the entire politics. Ambassador Moriarty then began increasing his private talks with the Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran who wanted the King to come to the foot path sooner than later.
Saran must have taken an oath in the name of God that he will dismantle the Royal institution once and for all when he was not allowed to enter the dining table instead the King enjoyed the luncheon at the palace with Dr. Karan Singh. Dr. Singh was here as the special emissary of Man Mohan Singh, the de facto Prime Minister of India.
That was unfair by all Nepali manners.
The US annoyance was simply in a heightened state as Moriarty who was in knowledge that Indian Foreign Secretary was flying to Beijing, early February 2006, to convince the Chinese authorities but yet he did not intervene into the matter because by this time an insulted US envoy too wanted to teach a befitting lesson to the unyielding Nepali monarch. India received the desired Beijing nod. Delhi-Beijing and Washington came in one single axis to do away with Nepali royalty. It was afterwards a collective affair.
Later things went as per the Indian half-cooked design and the net results of which, after seven years, are with the Nepalese people, good or bad whatever it is. But can it be said well? Should the Nepalese still hope for a New Nepal as promised by ‘imposed’ 12 point?
Yet what could be said of the US envoy is that he had tentatively made a logical comment. His claims made then have been justified. Those who brought the Maoists from New Delhi’s hospitality after signing the 2005 Nepal-India Treaty (with twelve articles) have begun feeling the brunt associated with the radical Maoist music.
PM Bhattarai is not in a mood to resign nor there is a provision that allows the President to sack him all of a sudden. Yet the President is being encouraged to sack Bhattarai. If he does so then he will do it at his own peril. Finance Minister Pun has already stated that the office of Nepal Presidency too has become constitutionally vacant after the CA demise. This perhaps speaks of the Maoists mood.
In the mean time, a new power and prestige tussle has begun in between the PMO and the President’s office. This is very dangerous.
The frightening of it all is the fresh formation of a Federal Alliance under the Chairmanship of Chairman Dahal.
The opposition parties have assailed the formation of this Front as they see that this alliance may ultimately split the country into two equal halves. Disintegration of the nation was inevitable, they claim. Underground Communist leader, Mohan Bikram Singh claims that Nepal will split for sure if the country adopts federal order. ( See opinion).
The NC and the UML have just been watching the highhandedness of the ruling coalition, as they have begun feeling the NOIDA heat.
Worst of it all is that this Federal Alliance has come into existence close on the heels of China airing its suggestion to Nepal not to go in for a federal system of governance.
Ai Ping is on record to have said to the Nepali leaders’ right here in Kathmandu during his fresh trip that Federal system for Nepal bodes ill. More so, Mohan Baidya, the Chairman of a new Maoists party while in his trip to Beijing was convinced not to embrace a federal order. Baidya now talks less on having federal order.
But ignoring the Chinese suggestions, the federal Alliance has already come into existence which means that a competing rival China lobby must have been there in encouraging the federalists to go ahead minimising what Beijing suggested.
Now it has become a matter of prestige for China. She has only two options: to let Nepal go its own preferred way or she forcefully intervene into the current Nepali politics caring little of the net results. China must come to a decision at the earliest. Beijing is perhaps mulling on how to face this Nepali challenge.
All in all, the existing politics must have been carefully analysed by the Nepal Army. Nepal has now a much disciplined and well informed Chief of the Army Staff-Mr. Gaurav S. Rana who must have been receiving information of his own country’s worsened politics each minute.
President too remains in a disturbed state so is PM Bhattarai. Dr. Yadav has time and again hinted PM to go by consensus. PM says let the parties in the opposing camp take such an initiative. Tussle is in a heightened situation.
Champions of federal order have got a new strength after the formation of the Alliance. These events if woven in a single string give an impression that Nepal is inching towards a fierce civil war. A strong force doesn’t seem in sight which could avert the largely looming threat to the nation. Nepal Army is the last hope if and when a calamity befalls upon the nation. Military institution is now the lone saviour, analysts presume.
Attention new CoAS Mr. Rana! Nation counts now on you and your highly professional institution only. After all the nation-state must be saved from the likely situation of a civil war. Prepare yourself for a Himalayan role ( not the military rule albeit) that may approach you sooner than later. Let the situation not turn from bad to worse. The eyes of the entire national population are now centered towards Bhadrakali Head Quarters. That’s all.