Nepal: Paradigm shift In South Asian politics

By N. P. Upadhyaya Nepali, Telegraph Weekly

Kathmandu: Nepal is already a damn ‘gone astray’ case and thus analysts will skip to some other significant issues of high import, which time permitting may change the entire political dynamics of the Himalayan South Asia. Bids are afoot.

Frankly speaking, the vast South Asia landmass now desires to get relieved from the Indian control and the countries unfortunately around India were in search of such a “unswerving” friend who could assist all these smaller countries, now plagued by the former British Colony’s highhandedness, in their pursuit for development and political stability. Though India claims that she would wish to see the smaller nations in SA region to flourish. Sounds hollow, if one were to recall the horrible past that these countries have undergone through or were still facing the Indian ad nauseating political music. Helpless and hapless countries that they are.

Nepal’s Northern neighbor appears to have agreeably taken the lead already and analysts, for example, Professor Deepak Gajurel, claims that the Dragon has bagged considerable success in this regard. Gajurel opined the other day at an intellectual seminar that China will now not leave Nepal alone to the mercy of India. What makes him so sure, he however, did not reveal.

To begin with, analysts wish to bring to the note of all and sundry the freshly concluded Brazil Summit wherein Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, deliberately hinted Nepal Prime Minister Babu Ram Bhattarai that he was least interested in meeting him as it would have no momentous impact on the upgrading of Nepal-China relations for certain explainable reasons.

China’s abrupt denial to meet Nepal PM in Brazil does tell so many things unspoken. Above all, it signals that China can’t repose trust on the present day Nepal PM and the ruling coalition plus the Nepal President, more so to the India elevated Babu Ram Bhattarai of the June 2002 Treaty fame, for fear of being put into an uncomfortable situation, sooner than later, as the “substance” of the bilateral talks may approach to the willing and accustomed ears of the Delhi rulers the next minute.

Or else, the record has been that at International assemblage, Chinese high placed authorities have inevitably met with the Nepali VIPs in a cordial manner.

The unexpected denial (?) to meet Nepali Prime Minister this time by Nepal’s northern neighbor is the authentication of the fact that Nepali leaders ruling Nepal at the moment can in no way be friendly towards China and hence there was no need to talk with such “tilted” personalities. The Chinese may have already concluded this.

What was more than humiliating to Nepal PM that his Chinese counterpart instead preferred to gratifyingly meet with the Bhutanese Prime Minister and both are learnt to have assured each other to work together for the benefit of the entire region in the days ahead. Bhutan, to recall, adjoins Tibet-China. A dense forest is all what distances these two countries.

China ignored PM Bhattarai but not Nepal as a nation-state with which she enjoys relations since ancient times to which the Chinese Ambassador Yang Houlan delightfully reiterated at a Nepal-China Society program held early August, 2012.

The Wen Jiabao and Thinley meet in Brazil does speak one thing very pointedly which, as much as could be understood, is that the new young King of Bhutan (He was born in Shanta Bhavan, Patan Hospital, Nepal) too wants to expand his ties not only with the adjoining neighbor, China, but would also prefer to go beyond this region by establishing diplomatic ties with developed countries which will provide a new distinguished image to Bhutan than what it has as of now. The process for the establishment of China-Bhutan diplomatic relations, analysts have been told, is in progress.

In one way or the other, China has by now convinced Bhutan that their bilateral relations would go a long way for the benefit of the entire Himalayan South Asia to which Bhutan apparently has provided its positive nod to the Chinese wise counsels. China-Bhutan friendship must be in an advanced stage by this time now since Brazil meet, analysts presume.

To add insult to injury, Chinese high level delegation Chief, Mr. Ai Ping, recently while being in Nepal preferred not to show even his face to Nepal PM and President.

The event is more than interesting.

No wonder then the visiting Chinese dignitary, Vice-Minister Fu Ying rightly observed in Kathmandu while meeting the JNU graduate Nepal PM Bhattarai that “Unity between China, India, Bhutan and Nepal could be valuable for the entire region”.

Nepal PM must have been pained but yet he had to listen to her million dollar remarks.

By this time now, the Indian sleuths posted in Nepal must have conveyed the “inner content” of this message to where it should approach as a matter of “duty” because June 2002 Treaty is still in force.

However, two things become clear from her communication aired in Nepal. First, China prefers to have intimate relations with its adjoining neighbors for the benefit of the entire South Asian region in an open hearted manner. Benevolent idea indeed.

Secondly, some other sharp brains take the unity between China, India, Nepal and Bhutan as a Chinese diplomacy to have its strong presence in these countries to undercut the all pervasive Indian influence that prevail visibly in, for example, Nepal and Bhutan.

Nepal, needless to point out, has already become a satellite of India. 

Ok. Whatever may have been the inner design of the Chinese, one thing is clear that if these nations were to develop, then some sort of closeness among them was a must. China could be the best and the most reliable friend. SA nations have no options left. Elephant or Dragon. Choice is yours.

How India will take these Chinese suggestions will determine the future course of South Asian politics.

The Indian SSB though has alaready hinted that the increased Chinese influence in Nepal bodes iull for the overall security interests of the Indian regime.

While the Chinese authority said so in Kathmandu, analysts are reminded of what a pulsating Pakistani senator, Mushahid Hussain said at a talk program organized by Nepal Council of World Affairs of South Asia and China as well, Augusts 3, 2012.

He said that the center of gravity of the world politics now has already shifted from the West to South Asia.

The Pak senator’s announcement is important and worth pondering over in that during the course of his speech at the NCWA, he also said that the “Great Game” of the “containment of China” too had already begun.

Some ten days later of this Senator’s grand revelation, the visiting Chinese dignitary opines that ‘we must work collectively to develop this part of the world’.

Fu Ying’s Nepal visit could also be linked to what the Pak Senator claims that bids were in progress to “contain China”.

Mushahid Hussain, as far as analysts understand, is very close to Beijing and is also taken as an expert on South Asian affairs. Hussain is a journalist turned politician. He was on a private trip to Kathmandu. 

If Husain’s account is taken at its face value then what could be fairly said that the Chinese regime very well understands the inner designs of what is called the “Great game” that is the containment of China in South Asia and thus in order to defuse such a possible containment before it takes a formal shape, Beijing has marched ahead in convincing the smaller countries of South Asia to be of support to each other. Such move may act like a deterrent to what is called Great Game. Beijing wants now to institutionalize its relations with these countries.

The consolidating efforts apparently have begun in earnest. 

China albeit knows that the containment exercise, if at all it comes into existence, then the interested quarters will overly use the Indian territories as their preferred and appropriate base. And thus Beijing may have begun to seduce the countries in South Asia wherein its increased influence already has brought several sleepless nights to India and its allies abroad. China now is to begin with Bhutan. This much is understandable. 

Yet Bhutan must talk with India on whether to have increased relations with India’s arch rival-China. Sources opine that Bhutan already enjoys the needed positive nod from India and the entire progress so far observed in China-Bhutan relations were in the notice of the Indian establishment. Bhutan must have briefed India out of fear, analysts can presume.

Yet some others take this particular China move as a friendly step to assure India that both the countries were partners but not the enemies.

But once the relations are established, Bhutan will have some increased political leverage in expanding its ties with other developed countries. After all the Bhutan King is full of energy.  He has inhaled Nepali fresh Oxygen for quite some time.

China doesn’t fear a war with India, as much as is noticeable, as it had already faced the same some fifty plus years back. Chinese warfare stamina appears to have increased manifold over these years comparatively which get reflected from what a Chinese scholar wrote for the Global times just the last week.  Look how he presents the last China-India war.

Writes Hong Yuan, in Global Times, that the Chinese fought the war with India under compelling circumstances, only to, in his own words, “ As to Nehru, Mao wanted to wake him up from the superpowers’ influence by giving him a heavy punch, so that he would come to his senses and end the war. War is an extreme means of communication between civilizations. The Sino-Indian Border War was not only a special interaction of two ancient civilizations, but also an unfortunate tragedy between two formerly colonized and oppressed states”.

The writer has some soother for India also.

He further writes in the same article that “China initially tried to avoid military confrontation, out of respect to India’s ancient culture and sympathy that it had suffered a similar painful past of oppression by colonial powers. However, India’s persistent provocation eventually breached China’s bottom-line, and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was forced to join the battle in self-defense.

A hard hitting article indeed.

This does mean that China can face India any time the latter wishes to get punched once again. China is ready to teach yet another lesson to India? Is it that? Depends upon Indian wisdom.

China is everywhere now in the region with Pakistan as its Israel as claimed by a high level Chinese political authority recently.  Pearl of string already exists. China has institutionalized its firm base in Africa and is handling South China Sea and the complexities of the Asia-Pacific region in a shrewd diplomatic manner. China has thus already entered into this region and the fresh advantage to her is that she is now the Observer in SAARC regional entity.

Putting all these pieces together, Pak Senator Husain’s comments and Fu Ying’s message included, China is in a fresh bid to win the hearts of friends in the vicinity. Indian annoyance will surely increase. The fact is that India will never take the Chinese assurances at its face value as she has already faced the China’s mind blowing rock music.

China is resolute now to occupy its due space in the countries of South Asia. Beijing now has located the center of gravity of its impending politics in the Himalayan region that adjoin Tibet Autonomous region of China.

How the West and India take these fresh Chinese political overture will perhaps shape the politics of Himalayan South Asia in the days ahead.

But it will be an arduous task for Beijing to get a reliable and stable partner in Nepal for reasons Beijing understands better. Nepal is Beijing’s headache and will remain for long time to come. Yet the search is in progress.

Courtesy: Telegraphnepal.com

http://www.telegraphnepal.com/analysis/2012-08-17/nepal:-paradigm-shift-in-south-asian-politics.html